Lakers vs Suns Prediction, Picks for Friday, Nov. 10
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs. Suns tonight, including our expert prediction and betting picks for Friday's Lakers-Suns In-Season Tournament showdown.
The Lakers look to bounce back after a brutal loss to the Houston Rockets. Can Los Angeles make a push against Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal? This game counts for the In-Season Tournament, so expect to see the wild courts and the matching uniforms!
Let's get to our Lakers vs. Suns prediction and pick.
Lakers vs Suns Prediction
The Lakers have a lengthy injury report heading into this game with the most significant injury being to Anthony Davis (hip/groin), who is questionable. Jaxson Hayes (ankle) is also questionable and the Lakers will be without Jalen Hood-Schifino (knee), Gabe Vincent (knee) and Jarred Vanderbilt (heel).
The Lakers have struggled out of the gate with a 3-5 record and a -4.9 Point Differential, per Cleaning the Glass. They are 19th in Adjusted Net Rating (-0.9) and have been unable to execute without LeBron James on the floor. This season, with James, the Lakers are +5.8 points per 100 possessions, which is a respectable number, per Cleaning the Glass. Without James? The Lakers are -35.1 points per 100 possessions. The burden he's carrying for this team in his 21st season is incredible.
One of the issues for the Lakers has been a complete inability to score. They are scoring just 108.2 points per 100 possessions and their actual FG% (53.3%) isn't significantly different from their eFG% (54.5%). They are barely taking any 3-point attempts and when they do, they're making just 31% of those looks, per Cleaning the Glass. They are struggling to generate consistent offense and they haven't had the 3 ball available to bail them out.
I think this is partially due to their personnel. Starting Austin Reaves, rather than staggering his minutes with James and D'Angelo Russell has impacted the bench, which lacks a primary scoring option. Also, there are too many ball-dominant players on the floor when those Reaves, Russell and James share the court, especially considering coach Darvin Ham continues to express that he wants the offense to run through Davis.
The Phoenix Suns have already ruled Devin Booker (calf) out for this game. They'll will miss him, but his absence is at least mitigated by Beal (back), who is listed as probable.
The Suns are 4-4 with a +2.7 Point Differential, per Cleaning the Glass. They are ninth in Adjusted Net Rating (+2.1) and have found success in their past two games against Chicago and Detroit. However, the Suns have the second-easiest strength of sschedule, per Dunksandthrees, and have losses to the Sixers, Spurs (twice) and Lakers. When these teams played previously, the Lakers had Davis and the Suns had neither Beal nor Booker.
The Suns are once again outpacing their eFG%, but are also taking more 3s this season than last and that shift is significant because it's giving the Suns better spacing and allowing them a slightly wider margin of error.
Lakers vs Suns Picks, Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 224.5 -110 / -110 | +105 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 224.5 -110 / -110 | -130 |
When these teams previously faced off, the offenses struggled to get anything going and the Lakers won 100-95. Both of these teams play at a slower pace this season, with the Lakers at 24th (99.2) and the Suns at 21st (99.7).
The Lakers have struggled mightily to generate consistent offense, especially without James on the floor, so it's tough to back them in this spot. While I lean toward the under on the entire game, I'm going to focus on the Lakers specifically because the Suns' offense still has potency with Durant, Beal and Jusef Nurkic. Given the game total of 222.5 and a spread of 4, I'm expecting the Lakers Team Total to be set around 109.5. They have only scored 110 or more points in two games this season, both of which went into overtime. I'll fade the Lakers' offense against a Suns' defense that has been surprisingly strong (Adjusted Defensive Rating 110.2 – 8th) in a slow-paced contest.
Pick: Lakers Team Total Under 109.5
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