Lakers vs. Spurs Picks, Prediction for Wednesday, Dec. 13
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs. Spurs on Wednesday, Dec. 13 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Lakers made history last weekend by becoming the first ever NBA In-Season Tournament Champions after defeating the Indiana Pacers to win the NBA Cup.
The Spurs made some history of their own on Monday with their loss to the Rockets, giving them the longest losing streak in franchise history at 17 consecutive games.
Let's get to our Lakers vs. Spurs pick and prediction.
Lakers vs. Spurs Prediction
Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 10.5 Rebounds
Lakers' Texas Two Step
The Lakers celebrated their In-Season Tournament win in Las Vegas by following up their championship victory with a 127-125 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. The championship hangover didn't affect everyone, but Rui Hachimura and D’Angelo Russell certainly struggled. They both scored seven points on 3-9 shooting from the field with Russell playing just 25 minutes—down five minutes from his usual 30-minute average.
With the Lakers traveling on the second leg of a back-to-back from Dallas to San Antonio, expect one of LeBron James or Anthony Davis to sit out Wednesday, if not both. They were both listed on the injury report ahead of Tuesday’s game, and I’d be shocked if both play, with James being the prime candidate for rest.
If James sits, Russell should make a comeback. His Usage Rate elevates by 6.6% in non-James minutes, and his Assist Rate jumps from 9.0% to 12.9% without King James on the floor.
Spurs Shift to Wembanyama at Center
The Spurs have been experimenting this season (read: tanking). For most of the season, Gregg Popovich has played Jeremy Sochan out of position at point guard, and the result has been abysmal basketball.
Backup Tre Jones isn’t exactly the Point God, with a Box Plus-Minus of -2.4, but Sochan is even worse in that metric at -5.4, and at least Jones has played the position before this season. The result has been the worst offense in the league, per Dunks and Threes.
Rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, who was playing power forward alongside Zach Collins for most of the season, is in the middle of another Popovich experiment. Collins has seen his minutes dip from 29.1 through the first 20 games of the season to just 7.0 in the past two games.
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As a result, Wembanyama’s rebounding has been unlocked as the lone San Antonio big on the floor. His Rebound Percentage has gone from 17.8% to 24.5%, and he’s averaging 19 rebounds per game since Collins left the starting lineup and has seen his minutes reduced.
Not only has Wembanyama's rebounding average skyrocketed, but he also had not grabbed more than 15 rebounds in a game all season before grabbing 20 and 18 boards in his last two games.
Despite a historic losing streak, the Spurs defense has looked better since the beginning of the season. Despite having the sixth-worst defense on the season, they’ve posted a 115.4 Defensive Rating over the last 10 games, which is 15th in that span.
Lakers vs. Spurs Picks, Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 232.5 -110/-110 | -154 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 232.5 -110/-110 | +130 |
I was looking to get ahead of the number in this game, fully expecting rest from James and Davis, but to no surprise the books had the same idea, and I can’t back the Spurs at such a short number of +4 (there are even a few +3.5s in the market).
Instead, I’ll look to Wembanyama’s rebounds prop at 10.5, which he’s hit in six of the last nine games. An escalator bet would be a great idea in this spot before the books fully adjust considering he’s grabbed 18 and 20 since Collins has lost significant minutes.
Additionally, if James sits, I’ll look at Russell’s points plus assists line t0 go over — but as always, wait for the injury report before placing that bet.
Follow in the Action app (AOWatts13) to see how I officially play Lakers vs. Spurs in addition to betting Wembanyama over 10.5 rebounds.
