Lakers vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks for Friday, Dec. 15
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs. Spurs on Friday, Dec. 15, including our expert prediction and betting picks alongside today's latest NBA odds.
Despite a furious fourth-quarter comeback that saw them outscore their opponents 45-30 in the session, the San Antonio Spurs were handed their 18th consecutive loss by the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night. Now, they'll look to pick up the pieces in the same exact matchup, taking place in the same building.
Will anything change here for the Spurs?
Let's get to our Lakers vs. Spurs prediction and pick.
Lakers vs. Spurs Prediction
Pick: Spurs +7.5
Lakers Betting Outlook
One big thing that may change here for the Lakers is getting LeBron James back into the lineup. The 38-year-old missed his second game of the season on Wednesday when he sat in San Antonio due to a left calf issue contusion. While he does enter this game with a questionable tag, all signs are pointing to him playing tonight.
In fact, both he and Anthony Davis are technically questionable to play, but given the low severity of their injuries, their regular questionable tags and the line on this game, there is a very strong expectation that both play.
Assuming they do, we should see more strong front court play out of the visitors here. L.A. ranks second in frequency of shot at the rim, according to Cleaning the Glass, shooting an excellent 70.2% in the zone, not to mention their quick pace for a team that plays the most transition possessions in the league.
An already strong defense has gotten even tighter in recent games, too, as the Lakers have ranked third in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions over the last five, not counting the In-Season Tournament. They've won five of six if you count their victory over Indiana in the title game, and even as favorites in all of those games they've covered in four of six.
Spurs Betting Outlook
Despite the presence of Victor Wembanyama inside, the San Antonio Spurs have had a miserable time defending at the rim — they own a 26th-ranked 67.9% field goal percentage within four feet, according to Cleaning the Glass. Even without James on Wednesday, that put the Spurs in a spot of peril with a whopping 62 points allowed in the paint, and overall this defense has generally been a bad one starting inside and extending to poor shooting defense around the perimeter.
Things have started to get a bit better, however, with the Spurs ranking fifth in defensive efficiency over the last five games. Their big issue has been on offense, where they've scored just 101.2 points per 100 possessions during that period in time, and despite getting out in transition plenty they've been incredibly inefficient on those possessions.
The Spurs have taken 38.2% of their shots from three, according to Cleaning the Glass, but they've knocked down just 34% of their shots from deep — that's one of the worst marks in the NBA and one that has remained stagnant over the last five contests. If there's one saving grace here, however, it's that the Spurs have shot 36.4% from three at home, compared to 31.2% on the road. And while the Lakers have done a bang-up job defending inside all year, their 3-point defense has been middling.
Lakers vs. Spurs Picks, Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 234 -110o / -110u | -325 |
| Spurs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 234 -110o / -110u | +260 |
The Lakers may be flexing their muscles on defense right now, but they've allowed 44.1% shooting from three over the last five games in a trend that's continuing to get worse for the visitors here given their already average marks in that area. They've also ranked just 23rd in transition defense, which should aid a Spurs team that has run out in transition at the fifth-highest rate in the NBA but one that has ranked just 26th in points per play.
All this to say, I believe this line is a bit unfair to San Antonio. The Spurs were able to keep pace with L.A. on Wednesday in points in the paint and on the glass, and despite a commanding performance through three quarters from the Lakers, San Antonio never really went away thanks to consistent shooting from 3, finishing with a mark of 43.2% from downtown.
The shooting trends should continue to favor the Spurs here, and despite a season's worth of data to point to the Spurs struggling on defense, they've certainly battened down the hatches in recent weeks.
The Spurs are nearing their first win since Nov. 2, and they're a decent 5-4 against the spread over their last nine. They've been at their best at home this season, and with the team improving, this is a number you have to play.
Pick: Spurs +7.5 |
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