Lakers vs. Celtics Prediction, Pick for Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs. Celtics on Thursday, Feb. 1 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
This is the most legendary rivalry in the NBA, but it might not be that captivating in 2024, especially considering that LeBron James and Anthony Davis won't play tonight.
Regardless, it'll be fun to bet. So, let's get to my Lakers vs. Celtics prediction and pick for tonight.
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Lakers vs. Celtics Prediction
Pick: Over 241.5 (Play to 242.5) | Anthony Davis Over 11.5 Rebounds
Lakers Betting Outlook
It's not a surprise that the betting numbers don't love the Lakers this season, and well, they only have themselves to blame.
All of the following is true despite LeBron James and Anthony Davis hardly missing time this season.
The Lakers are 9-15 against the spread on the road, fifth worst in the NBA — only Charlotte, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Denver are worse. They're slightly better as a road underdog, 7-8 ATS, but hardly above the 10 worst in the league.
Also, oddly enough, the Lakers are just 6-10 in non-conference matchups, making them the third-worst Western Conference team ATS against teams from the East. Only the Suns and Rockets are worse, and one of them has an injury excuse.
On the plus side, they're 18-15 ATS with one day off between games, ninth in the NBA, and they last played on Tuesday, losing 138-122 to the Hawks without Davis. The Lakers are also 16-13 ATS with equal rest to their opponent, 10th in the league.
What the Lakers are elite at is hitting overs while a road underdog, which they've done in 12 of 15 such games, the most in the NBA by far. They've also gone over in 18 of 24 road games, leading the league in that as well. And with equal rest to their opponent, the Lakers have gone over in 17-of-29 games, tied for the fifth-most overs in the league.
Davis is questionable with an Achilles and a hip injury. James is also questionable with an ankle injury. Cam Reddish and Gabe Vincent remain out.
Celtics Betting Outlook
The Celts have been winning at home, but they haven't been smackin' teams at TD Garden as much as you'd think even though they look, more often than not, like the best regular season squad in the league.
And by the advanced numbers, they are beloved, but ATS it's less overwhelming than I would've thought despite a league-best 37-11 record
The Celtics are 22-2 straight-up at home but just 13-11 ATS as a home favorite this season, which is just 13th in the NBA — good to know for a team that is a double-digit favorite. Boston, as a favorite in general, is 22-22-2 ATS, just unspectacular and tied for 15th — literally middle of the road.
We last saw the Celtics beat Indiana 129-124 on Tuesday, so they're coming off a win, but following a victory they're only 17-18-1 ATS, which is 17th in the league. And with equal rest, Boston is just 9-10-1, just above the bottom 10 teams in the league.
As a home favorite, Boston has gone over in exactly half (12) of their 24 such contests, which doesn't complement the Lakers' road overs entirely. Another place Boston differentiates is going over on equal rest to their opponent, and the Celtics have actually gone under in eight of 20 such contests.
The C's have one injury to report, and that's Luke Kornet, who is questionable with a hamstring injury that sat him Tuesday.
Lakers vs. Celtics Pick, Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -102 | 242 -105o / -115u | +520 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -118 | 242 -105o / -115u | -720 |
I don't love either side, even as the Lakers seem like the play given that the Celtics, while constantly winning, aren't as dominant against the spread as you'd think.
But betting wise, I'm taking this game over 241.5. We saw sharp money come in on the over and the Lakers to cover as of this morning, and to me, the Lakers' over numbers as a road team are staggering enough to lean that way.
Pick: Over 241.5 (Play to 242.2)
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