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Since Tom Thibodeau got to the Knicks and Julius Randle won Most Improved Player, his shot diet has changed and he has started taking a lot more threes. This has become more pronounced, especially last season. But Randle's 3-point shooting isn't evenly distribute throughout the game.
Last year, Randle led the league in threes attempted in the first quarter, while he only finished 11th in the NBA in 3-pointers attempted for the entire game. He took 37.5% of his shots from three in the first quarter.
For comparison, Klay Thompson, who led the league in threes attempted last year, was at 29%, while Jayson Tatum (finished second) was at 27%.
If his shooting were evenly distributed, we would expect him to be at 25%.
This year, Randle is 59th in the NBA in 3-pointers attempted per game at 5.8, but he is 17th in the first quarter, averaging 2.1. He is shooting atrocious from three this season, shooting 28% for the game and only 32.5% in the first quarter. He is taking 36% of his shots from three in the first quarter, which is the fourth-highest among heavy volume 3-point shooters in the first quarter.
Not only does Randle shoot a ton from three in the first quarter, he is looking for the three early in the quarter as well. He led the league in threes in the first three minutes of the game last year, with 40 (one every other game), and this year he has hit eight in the first three minutes in the game, tied for third in the NBA.
Everyone dives into the First Basket market, which is one of the most fun markets to bet, but FanDuel and BetMGM now offer a market for First 3-Point Field Goal.
In Knicks games last year, Randle hit the first three of the game in 23 games (28%), including one of the three against the Bucks. This year, he has hit the first three in four games (21%), despite the atrocious shooting mentioned earlier.
Randle's shooting is bound to normalize (at least somewhat), moving him up on total threes hit., Despite the Bucks' strong overall shooting from three this year (14th in percentage, 8th in attempts), they have been the first team to hit a three in a game 50% of the time so far this year.
Randle should probably be the favorite to hit the first three of the game, and I'd put him at least at a 20% chance to do so. But the odds don't reflect this: there are at least three players ahead of him on both books.
Randle to be the first player to record a three at +700 on FanDuel is a must-bet for me. I'd bet this number down to +500, as that is still way below the 20% threshold set above.
Pick: Julius Randle First 3-Pointer (+700 at FanDuel) | Bet to +500
