Kings vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Jan. 25
Here's everything you need to know about Kings vs. Warriors on Thursday, Jan. 25 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors are both in desperate need of some wins to get their seasons back on track, making Thursday's showdown in San Francisco one which should be a tightly-contested affair.
Is there any reason to believe in the home side here following an impressive victory over the Hawks on Wednesday, or will tired legs come into play? Let's get to our Kings vs. Warriors prediction and pick.
Kings vs. Warriors Prediction
Pick: Warriors +2 (-110)
Kings Betting Outlook
The Kings are very similar to the Warriors in that they're heavily reliant on their offense to win games. While things have remained rather steady on that end, this team has cratered defensively over the last 10 games, sinking to 19th in the league over that span.
The issues for Sacramento have been tenfold, but it's been especially bad around the perimeter, ranking 29th against the three and 24th against the mid-range jumper. Things have gotten marginally worse in those areas, but the good news is this team's rim defense — which has held it up for most of the season — has risen to sixth in the NBA in the month of January.
The Kings, as has been the case in the last few years, have attempted to feast from outside on offense, ranking fifth in frequency of shot from downtown. Their success rate has been more or less fine at 37.4% for the year, and over the last 10 games they've actually knocked down more than 28% of their looks. Winning the battle on the perimeter is going to be imperative to their success in this game, and we should note that their 3-point shooting numbers have taken a 2.8 point hit in road games this season.
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Warriors Betting Outlook
Golden State's defense has gone from bad to abysmal in the last 10 games, with the home side allowing a league-worst 126.4 points per 100 possessions over that span. Defending the arc has been one of the things this team has really excelled at, ranking ninth against the three for the season. Although, ever since the calendar has turned to January this team finds itself 22nd in that regard and its rim defense has gotten even worse.
That will certainly present an uphill battle against a Kings team that loves to shoot the long ball, though the Warriors profile very similarly and should get plenty of open looks against a similarly-awful 3-point defense at the moment. A glimmer of hope may be their last game, a win over the Hawks on Wednesday, which saw them allow just 32.6% shooting from downtown in a 22-point victory.
The Warriors are still unlikely to have Moses Moody and Gary Payton II for this game, which should continue to make life difficult for a team that has struggled to find the winning combination in its backcourt — especially since the injury to Chris Paul earlier this month.
Still, this team stands at a solid 4-3 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season and as underdogs they're a whopping 12-5 ATS this season.
Kings vs. Warriors Picks, Odds
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 244 -108o / -112u | -130 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 244 -108o / -112u | +110 |
Golden State's shooting numbers at home this season have been pretty much the same as their numbers on the road, but on the other side of the floor the Kings will be fighting an uphill battle given their brutal shooting numbers on the road.
The Warriors have been terrible defensively of late, particularly in stopping the three, but a season's worth of data would suggest this team is more than capable of slowing the Kings enough from outside to earn a win in what's generally been a very solid spot for them as underdogs.
I'm going to back the Warriors' defense to start improving off the back of a solid defensive performance against Atlanta, and I'm encouraged by their incredible shooting night at home on Wednesday. Golden State has been a tough sell for bettors this season, but getting points here at home against a defense that has been just as bad as it has, I think this is the right time to buy back in on the Warriors.
Pick: Warriors +2 (-110)
