Lakers vs Kings Pick, Prediction Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs Kings on Wednesday, March 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
The Sacramento Kings look to take the tiebreaker from the Los Angeles Lakers tonight and win their third game in as many tries against the L.A. this season. Lakers vs Kings tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass. Lakers vs Kings odds have the Lakers as 3-point favorites (-3), with the total set at over/under 240 points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Although these teams have not met since November, can the Lakers flip the script? Let's get to our Lakers vs Kings pick and Lakers vs Kings prediction tonight.
Pick: Kings +3.5 | Play to +2.5
Lakers vs Kings Prediction
Pick: Kings +3.5 | Play to +2.5
Kings Betting Outlook
The Kings head into this contest mostly healthy outside of Sasha Vezenkov and look to keep pace in a loaded Western Conference.
On the season, Sacramento ranks 14th in Adjusted Net Rating (+0.8) with the 10th-best offense (117.4) and the 20th-ranked defense (116.6), per Dunks and Threes.
The Kings have been a fun team to watch this season, but they have had their struggles as well. Over the last two weeks, their defense has faltered and dipped to the third-worst mark in the league over this stretch; however, they have seen their offense jump to seventh-best, per Cleaning the Glass.
Despite that, they have an average -3.0 point differential in those six games. Those six games have been some tougher matchups, though, with contests against the Clippers, Nuggets, Wolves and the Zombie Heat.
Sacramento takes a ton of 3s — at the fifth-highest frequency in the NBA — so even though they shoot just league average from distance, they can develop a meaningful edge in matchups.
Considering this is a shot the Lakers not only allow but have difficulty defending, it's a way for the Kings to find success here. In both prior matchups, Sacramento won the 3-point battle and took 44 and 48 3s while making 16 and 17, respectively.
Lakers Betting Outlook
The Lakers once again have half of the team listed on the injury report with LeBron James (ankle, questionable), Anthony Davis (Achilles, probable) and Cam Reddish (ankle, probable) all listed.
Considering this is not a back-to-back, though, it should be expected that they all suit up, as they have in most games with an injury designation.
The Lakers have been middle of the pack this season. They rank 19th in Adjusted Net Rating (+0.0) with the 17th-ranked offense (115.4) and the 16th-ranked defense (115.4).
They've been a bit better of late, though, owning the 10th-best point differential over the last two weeks while going 4-3 over that stretch. They've had the eighth-best offense, but the defense has been abysmal at fifth-worst, per Cleaning the Glass.
Los Angeles has had an interesting season with its shot selection. The Lakers have the seventh-best effective field-goal percentage because they blitz the rim with the second-highest frequency of shots in close while taking the lowest rate of shots from 3.
It has been successful with the team tied for the best shooting percentage at the rim (71.3%). L.A. has also made 3s at an above-average clip (38.1%), but the shot profile leaves the margins thin for it to win.
Lakers vs Kings Odds, Picks
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 240 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 240 -112o / -108u | -142 |
This matchup comes down to shot selection. While the Lakers have the personnel to punish the Kings on the interior, they allow too many 3s to match up with their preferred style of play.
That may not play out in a playoff series, but it doesn't schematically work in the regular season when teams are sticking to their normal game plans.
I'll grab the points with the Kings on the road. They're the third-best against-the-spread team on the road at 19-13-1 ATS, and I expect them to find success from long range.
Pick: Kings +3.5 | Play to +2.5
