Pacers vs. Pelicans Picks, Prediction Today
Here's everything you need to know about Pacers vs. Pelicans on Friday, March 1 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Indiana Pacers head to New Orleans to take on the New Orleans Pelicans in a rematch from Wednesday evening in one of these home-and-home baseball style series. The game tips off at 8 p.m. ET on NBA League Pass and the regional broadcasts for each team. As of early Friday, the Pelicans are 5-point favorites (-5) at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the total set at over/under 238.
Can the Pelicans avenge their loss or will the Pacers take two in a row from New Orleans?
Let's get to our Pacers vs Pelicans pick and Pacers vs Pelicans prediction.
Pick: Pelicans -5
Pacers vs. Pelicans Prediction
Pick: Pelicans -5
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Pacers Betting Outlook
The Pacers have listed Aaron Nesmith (ankle) as questionable for tonight's game, and Doug McDermott (calf) is out. Despite that, they are relatively healthy otherwise.
The Pacers have been dynamic offensively throughout this entire season ,and they have the league's second-best Adjusted Offensive Rating (119.9), per Dunks and Threes. As the offense continues to gel, they should continue to improve even without sharpshooter Buddy Hield.
The key for Indiana's success is the Haliburton/Siakam/Turner lineups. Those are +4.5 so far, and the team is scoring 121.1 points per 100 possessions with those lineups, per Cleaning the Glass. We are starting to see this trio improve as they spend more time sharing the floor together. In the last game, Haliburton recorded 13 assists on 22 potentials against a stout Pelicans' defense.
The key was they were able to get out in transition with Haliburton's vision, and they had a +10.7 point differential on those transition possessions with the majority coming off of Live Rebounds. This is an area that New Orleans has struggled with this season relative to the rest of their defense, as they allow the 123.6 points per 100 plays in that scenario, 18th in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.
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Pelicans Betting Outlook
The Pelicans were in a rough schedule spot last game as they were in the second game of a back-to-back set, a spot in which they were just 4-6 straight up on the season. When playing on equal rest, New Orleans is 22-11 straight up and 18-14-1 ATS.
One notable piece of information from last game is that Jonas Valanciunas played just seven minutes; there was no listed injury or any listed reason, but he never returned after that initial stint. It's particularly interesting because Valanciunas had recorded a double-double in five of his previous six games against Myles Turner and has played 22+ minutes in each of those games. Coach Green indicated in the post game that "We knew we were going to have to go small. It allows you to stay in front of them defensively. (Sitting Valanciunas) was the adjustment for us."
The Pelicans have been one of the league's best teams but also the most enigmatic. They have the seventh-best Adjusted Net Rating, with the 14th Adjusted Offense and sixth Adjusted Defense, per Dunks and Threes. New Orleans has a balanced offensive attack and does not rely on 3s, which would be a good fit to attack Indiana, a team that limits opponents' 3-point opportunities. Indiana gets eviscerated at the rim and from midrange and the Pelicans are one of the best scoring teams from within 2 point range.
Pacers vs. Pelicans Picks, Odds
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -108 | 239 -112o / -108u | +176 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -112 | 239 -112o / -108u | -210 |
These two teams are facing off in a rematch from Wednesday night, and the spread has flipped with New Orleans playing at home.
Last game, Indiana got off to a hot start and never surrendered the lead after a 40-24 first quarter, although the Pelicans clawed their way back and lost by nine. I expect a different result in this game. The Pelicans were outrebounded by 10, which is a completely unacceptable result against a Pacers team that is 23rd in Rebound%. While Coach Green made an "adjustment" to go small, it cost them on the glass.
New Orleans made a push in the final three quarters, and had they not started the game flat, they might have been in a position to win. I'll lay the points with New Orleans in a bounce back spot.
