Hornets vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks | Best Bet Today
Here's everything you need to know about Hornets vs. Nuggets on Monday, Jan. 1 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
If not for the Pistons' 28-game losing streak, the Charlotte Hornets would've been the topic of conversation around NBA circles. Charlotte currently has the longest losing streak in the league at 10 games.
Things won't get any easier on Monday night against a Nuggets team that will likely be in a foul mood following its recent 119-93 home loss to the Thunder. Denver opened as a 14.5-point favorite, and one sportsbook even pushed the number to 15 out of the gate. Instead of laying such a heavy number, we can find better value by targeting a same game parlay.
Let's get to our Hornets vs. Nuggets prediction and pick.
Hornets vs. Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Same Game Parlay +140: Nuggets ALT Team Total Over 114.5 (-330) / Hornets ALT Team Total Under 114.5 (-450) / Nikola Jokic 20+ Points (-500) / Jamal Murray ALT Under 5.5 Rebounds (-280)
Hornets Betting Outlook
Although we've seen this Hornets team continue to pick at the top of the draft, results and consistency haven't entirely followed. The biggest issue for the Hornets is on the defensive end, as they sit last in TeamRankings' efficiency metrics, allowing 118.6 points per 100 possessions.
More specifically, Charlotte ranks 28th in rebounding (48.5 points per game), leading to extra scoring chances for its opponents.
After reviewing the Hornets' roster, I question whether or not they can solve their rebounding woes even when they get some players back from injuries. Instead, I suspect this is a systemic issue that will likely continue throughout the season.
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Nuggets Betting Outlook
With the Timberwolves and Thunder jumping out to fast starts, the Nuggets face a legitimate threat in the Western Conference.Denver is currently the third seed, 2.5 games behind the top-seeded Timberwolves.
One of the things that caught my attention in Denver's recent loss to the Thunder was the fact that the Nuggets were out-rebounded 51-36. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City ranks just 27th in rebounding with 48.6 per game.
Controlling the glass is critical for the Nuggets because they aren't a team that plays with a fast tempo, considering they rank 29th with 100.5 possessions per game. However, if there's a team they can regain their swagger against, it's the Hornets.
Given the Hornets' struggles with rebounding, I like Denver's chances to control the game. The Nuggets are also coming off a game held below 100 points. This Denver team is too talented to struggle that much offensively. We could have a perfect storm with the right opponent for Denver to get back to its winning ways.
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Hornets vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds
| Hornets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -115 | 226 -112o / -108u | +800 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -105 | 226 -112o / -108u | -1350 |
If you look at Denver's schedule this season, you'll find two other instances where an opponent held the Nuggets below 100 points, and Denver bounced back in a big way in both instances, averaging 128.5 points in the two games afterward.
Thus, I'm expecting a big performance from the Nuggets, as I like them to go over their alternate team total of 114.5 points (330) for the game. Defensively, look for the Nuggets to sting the Hornets and keep them under (-450) that 114.5-point threshold.
Keeping with the theme of bouncing back, I'm adding Nikola Jokic's alternate scoring prop of 20+ (-500). Jokic's 19-point performance against the Thunder was well below his scoring average of 26.1 points per game.
Lastly, I'm taking Jamal Murray's alternate rebounding prop of under 5.5 at -280. Although Murray has posted a few big rebounding performances, they were more of an anomaly than the norm.
A same-game parlay with these four props results in much more favorable odds at +140.
Pick: Same Game Parlay +140: Nuggets ALT Team Total Over 114.5 (-330) / Hornets ALT Team Total Under 114.5 (-450) / Nikola Jokic 20+ Points (-500) / Jamal Murray ALT Under 5.5 Rebounds (-280)
