Heat vs. Raptors Pick, Prediction for Wednesday, Dec. 6
Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs. Raptors on Wednesday, Dec. 6 — our expert pick and betting prediction for today.
The injured Heat will travel to Toronto to take on the struggling Raptors on Wednesday night. Can the Raptors defend their home court against a shorthanded Heat team?
Let's get to our Heat vs. Raptors prediction and pick.
Heat vs. Raptors Prediction
Pick: Raptors -3
Heat Shorthanded
The Heat are 20th in Net Rating with an 11-9 record, but they will be shorthanded here as Bam Adebayo, Haywood Highsmith and Tyler Herro will all be out. They’ve had an efficient Offensive Rating of 121.1 with Adebayo off the floor this season, but it will be interesting to see if they can maintain this efficiency against a solid Raptors defense.
The Raptors match up fairly well with Jimmy Butler and Jaime Jaquez Jr. as they have several long and athletic wings to guard them. I expect the Heat to struggle to consistently generate great shots without Adebayo against this Raptors defense.
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Raptors Have Interior Edge
The Raptors have begun the year 9-11 and rank just 22nd in Net Rating (-1.8). They have been weighed down by their offense as they rank just 24th in Offensive Rating (111.4), 26th in Halfcourt Offensive Rating and 26th in eFG% (52.3%) on the year. They’ve been awful from behind the 3-point line where they rank 29th by converting on just 33.5% of their looks.
Nonetheless, this is a great offensive rebounding team and a great transition team as they rank sixth in Offensive Rebounding Rate and second in Transition Offensive Rating.
This might be a good spot for the Toronto offense to get right as the Heat will be without their defensive centerpiece, Adebayo, in this one. Miami will also be without one of its best perimeter defenders in Highsmith. With Adebayo and Highsmith off the floor, the Heat have a dreadful 123.3 Defensive Rating this season.
The Raptors are heavily reliant on attacking the rim, and they should have an edge on the interior without Adebayo available. Consequently, the Raptors should be efficient on offense.
Heat vs. Raptors Picks, Odds
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 220 -110 / -110 | +144 |
| Raptors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 220 -110 / -110 | -172 |
I see value on the Raptors -3 as this Raptors team is likely being underrated after playing the fifth-toughest schedule in the NBA, according to dunksandthrees.com.
Meanwhile, the Heat have played the ninth-easiest schedule to begin the year. When you factor in the schedule strength with the key injuries for the Heat, this line should be closer to -5 than -3, so I will gladly take the Raptors at -3 or better here.
Pick: Raptors -3 or Better
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