Heat vs Pelicans Pick, Prediction Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Heat vs. Pelicans on Friday, Feb. 23 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The New Orleans Pelicans whooped on the Houston Rockets, 127-105, last night, reintroducing themselves after the All-Star break.
The Miami Heat? Well… tonight will be the first we've seen them in over a week, so while they'll be on the road, they will carry a distinct rest advantage.
The Heat got some mostly good news on the injury front, which we'll get to shortly, but for whatever reason, they're kind of… better when short-handed.
I think placing them as +3 dogs is fair, and with the Pels, it could literally go either way on any given night.
This is a tough one to handicap, but we'll do our best. Let's get to our Heat vs. Pelicans pick and prediction.
Maximize your Heat vs. Pelicans action with our DraftKings promo code.
Heat vs Pelicans Pick and Prediction
Pick: Lean Under 221.5 · Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points
Heat Betting Outlook
The Heat have cashed 12 unders in 17 games as road underdogs this season, which is the third-most unders by percentage in this scenario. And true Heat basketball led by Jimmy Butler — returning Friday — tends to lead to unders, so put a pin in this.
The Heat are only 5-6 against the spread with a rest advantage, and oddly enough, have been far better against the spread with a rest disadvantage — but again, that's very Miami.
With a rest advantage, the Heat are also an under-heavy team, hitting just four overs in 11 tries.
As a straight-up win/loss team, the Heat are 8-9 as a road underdog with the fifth-best winning percentage in the NBA — and fourth if you discount the Celtics, who are just 1-1.
However, there are injuries to consider.
Terry Rozier is out with a knee sprain, though he may return sooner than expected. Josh Richardson is out with a shoulder dislocation. Tyler Herro was added to the injury report Thursday and is questionable with a foot ailment.
Pelicans Betting Outlook
The Pelicans have hit 11 overs in 19 games as a home favorite, including last night's win over Houston. That mark is good for top-10 in the league by percentage.
The Pels are also 5-4 ATS with a rest disadvantage, which ranks ninth in the NBA. They're 5-3 ATS with no rest as well, which is tied for fifth in the NBA with a 62.5% cover percentage.
They're also on a run with five overs in eight games with no rest this season.
And for good measure, the Pels are 13-6 straight up as a home favorite, which is closer to the middle of the pack in the league.
Regarding injuries, Brandon Ingram is listed as day-to-day with an illness, and he did not play on Thursday. Dyson Daniels is out for weeks with a knee injury.
Heat vs Pelicans Odds, Pick
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 219 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Pelicans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 219 -110o / -110u | -148 |
I'm all over the place with this game, but I loved the under last night at 223.5. However, on Friday morning, it dropped all the way to 220. If the number bounces back to 221.5 at least, then I'd lean under.
And I've already played Jimmy Butler over 21.5 points, which is my favorite prop on the board right now. It was already -125 on Thursday night, so I envision this jumping to 22.5 or higher if Herro actually sits.
Butler hit over both 21.5 and 22.5 in five of his seven games leading up to his two-game absence before the All-Star break. As discussed on the "Buckets" podcast, he averaged around 26-6-6 last year after the break.
I expect him to summon his All-Star self the rest of the way, which we haven't seen consistently.
Is it because he doesn't care that much until now? Or is it because he's 34? We'll soon find out.
