Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Jan. 18
Here's everything you need to know about Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves on Thursday, Jan. 18 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
Returning to the Target Center has been a welcoming sight for the Timberwolves this season, as they boast the second-best home record (16-2) in the league. Minnesota is currently amid a six-game homestand and wasted no time rattling off three straight wins.
On Wednesday night, the Timberwolves fought off a feisty Pistons team to pull away with a 124-117 victory. Minnesota will now face the Grizzlies, who should be just as spirited following an impressive 116-107 victory over the Warriors despite missing multiple key players due to injuries.
While Memphis faces long odds to reach the playoffs, this season could be invaluable for the organization in developing some of its young talent. The Grizzlies were last in action on Monday, giving them a significant edge in preparation over the Timberwolves, who will be on a back-to-back.
That imbalance might be enough to give the Grizzlies a punching chance against the best team in the Western Conference. Let's get to our Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick.
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Prediction
Pick: Grizzlies +12.5 (-110)
Grizzlies Betting Outlook
The 2023-24 season was always going to be difficult for the Grizzlies following Ja Morant's 25-game suspension. However, Memphis looked ready to mount a playoff push with four straight wins once Morant was back with the team.
With Morant on the floor this season, the Grizzlies went 6-3; without him, they're just 9-22. Unfortunately, a shoulder injury during practice would rule out Morant for the rest of the season.
There is a certain finality that Morant's injury brings because it completely removes any expectations we might have for the Grizzlies during this campaign. Thus, it's possible that Memphis plays somewhat carefree, with nothing to lose.
In the interim, Morant's limited presence might've been enough to instill some confidence in this young Memphis team.
We're learning that the Grizzlies roster may be even deeper than we initially thought. Memphis played nine players against the Warriors, with each player logging at least 17 minutes of action.
Seven of those nine players scored double digits for the game.
That's pretty impressive for a team missing key players like Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Derrick Rose, Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. Each player has either started for Memphis or averaged double figures in scoring.
Sometimes, we undervalue the peripheral players that make up an NBA roster. These players can all ball—they're just waiting for the opportunity to prove their worth.
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Timberwolves Betting Outlook
The Timberwolves look like the real deal as we approach the midway point of the season. Minnesota has set itself apart from other teams thanks to its stellar defense.
If you look at Minnesota's defensive efficiency metric per TeamRankings, it's at least two points better than any other team in the league. In comparison, the offensive efficiency rankings are much tighter, with the top six teams all within roughly one point of one another.
At a time when we're experiencing perhaps the most significant offensive surge in the NBA, the Timberwolves are the antithesis, given their defensive prioritization. Thus, the Timberwolves are happy to zig when the rest of the league is zagging.
This contrarian style is what makes Minnesota so challenging to play against.
However, despite having the second-best record in the league, the Timberwolves rank fourth in point differential with a +5.8 value. Minnesota has also benefited from a 12-4 mark in clutch games where the score is within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.
The expectation is that those numbers tend to even out over time. Hence, it's no surprise that the Timberwolves have the highest luck factor in the league, according to TeamRankings. As a result, we should expect some regression for the Timberwolves, and playing on short rest on Thursday might make them all the more vulnerable.
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Picks, Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 214.5 -110 / -110 | +500 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 214.5 -110 / -110 | -700 |
The Grizzlies look primed to embrace the Next Man Up mantra, and they've had ample time to put together a competitive game plan for the Timberwolves. Memphis opened as a 12.5-point underdog, and we've seen that number tick down to 12 at some sportsbooks.
If there's ever a game where the Timberwolves could be excused for having their guard down, it'd be this one.
According to our Action Labs database, teams playing on a back-to-back against an opponent with three days of rest between games are just 11-22 against the spread (ATS) this season for a loss of 12.02 units. This angle is currently on a 1-7 ATS run.
After running the numbers, my model makes Memphis closer to a 10-point underdog, so I'll roll the dice here and take the points with the Grizzlies on the road.
Pick: Grizzlies +12.5 (-110)
