Grizzlies vs. Lakers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Multiple Ways to Attack Total

Grizzlies vs. Lakers Odds

Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies kick off a five-game West Coast road trip on Friday against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.

Meanwhile, the Lakers end a five-game home stand looking to right the ship after tough losses to Dallas, Philadelphia and Sacramento.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as our pick and prediction for the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have been a January juggernaut, going undefeated in the month thanks to top-notch defense, anchored by Defensive Player of the Year front-runner Jaren Jackson Jr.

Memphis' win streak goes back to Dec. 29 when the Grizzlies kicked off their run with a 119-106 road win against the Toronto Raptors.

Elite road play — something that eluded Memphis prior to this streak — has been a staple of the Grizzlies’ recent success. Before the turnaround, Memphis was one of the worst road teams in the league with an 4-11-2 road record against the spread.

Since then, Memphis has gone 4-0 and has the best road Point Differential by a Grand-Canyon-sized margin (+19.6). The New York Knicks are second in that time frame at +6.7, according to Cleaning the Glass.

The majority of the Grizzlies recent momentum has come during the first half as Memphis gets out to big leads that its opponents struggle to come back from.

The Grizzlies +22.5 Net Rating is tops in the league — also by a wide margin — according to NBA Advanced Stats. The surging Denver Nuggets (+16.1) are the only squad close to the Grizzlies in that metric, and they aren’t even that close.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have also experienced some decent play in January, at least against the spread. In their past 10 games, the Lakers are 7-2-1. However, they’ve struggled more recently, going just 2-2-1 in their past five games.

Even when the Lakers were flailing, as they did to start the season, they could generally be relied on to cover in the first half. The switch to have Russell Westbrook come off the bench and lead the second unit was a crucial change that has paid dividends, especially in the second quarter.

That adjustment has allowed LeBron James to get some much-needed rest at the end of the first and the beginning of the second quarters, without sacrificing too much of a lead.

Recently, the Lakers haven’t been their usual selves in the first half. They’re just 5-5 against the spread at home, compared to their season record of 15-7, and a big reason is their lack of offense. L.A. is 17th in first-half Offensive Rating in January, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Grizzlies-Lakers Pick

My model makes the Lakers a small favorite in this matchup, but it also skews pretty heavily to full-season home/away performance and doesn’t give as much weight to the Grizzlies recent play.

With the way Memphis is playing, I can’t look to the Lakers, even at home. To avoid any late-game meltdowns like Memphis had against Cleveland on Wednesday, I'll play the Grizzlies in the first half.

I also lean to the total in both halves. Both teams are 6-4 to the under in their past 10 games in their respective home/road splits. The Lakers are 6-4 to the under in the first half and the Grizzlies are 7-3 to the under.

With the way the Grizzlies are playing defense and considering how the Lakers have struggled to score, I’ll look to the Grizzlies first half line down to -5. If the market moves that line out of range, I will also play the under down to 120 in the first half and the full game down to 242.

Pick: Under 245 | Under 123.5 1H

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