Warriors vs Mavericks Picks, Prediction Today | Wednesday, March 13

The Golden State Warriors minus Stephen Curry will take on the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET. Take a look at our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Warriors enter as +7 underdogs, but is that where the betting value lies? Let's make a Warriors vs. Mavericks pick and prediction in our NBA betting preview for Wednesday, March 13.

Pick: Mavericks -7

The Warriors (34-30, 10th in the West) have shown resilience throughout the season and currently boast the 11th-best offensive rating. Golden State is known for its ability to score efficiently (14th in eFG%) and capitalize on second-chance points (fourth in OREB%).

However, the Warriors' poor rankings in both turnover percentage and free throw rate reveal areas of vulnerability, particularly in maintaining possession and capitalizing on free opportunities given by opposing teams.

Defensively, the Warriors stand in the middle of the pack with a 16th-place defensive rating. Their defensive efforts are bolstered by a decent eFG% (12th) and rebounding (14th in DREB%), but their middling rank in forcing turnovers (18th) suggests they may struggle against teams that protect the ball well – particularly tonight against the elite Dallas ball handling.

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The Mavericks offense is a force to be reckoned with, ranking sixth in both offensive rating and eFG%, alongside possessing exceptional ball security (second in TO%). However, their offensive rebounding (24th) and free throw percentage (26th) indicate missed opportunities where opposing defenses may give Dallas free points offensively.

On the defensive end, the Mavericks have areas to improve, ranking 21st in defensive rating. Their struggle is apparent in defending shots (20th in eFG% against) and rebounding (26th in defensive rebounding), presenting opportunities for opponents to exploit.

Without Curry in the lineup however, Golden State might have trouble capitalizing on these deficiencies.

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Considering the absence of Curry for the Warriors, the Mavericks enter this matchup with a significant advantage. Dallas' ability to maintain possession and efficiently score, coupled with Golden State's challenges in ball handling and mediocre defensive turnover rate, tilts the scales in favor of the Mavericks.

Despite the Warriors' commendable offensive rebounding, the Mavericks' proficient scoring and ball security are likely to dominate the game's pace and offensive flow.

Choosing the Mavericks to cover the -7 spread is the advised bet.

The Warriors have played five games this season without Curry and have amassed a 1-4 record straight up yet covered the spread in three of the five games. I am expected a regression to the mean with this undersized and undermanned Golden State team.

Take the Mavericks to cover the -7 spread and for Dallas to win this game comfortably.

Pick: Mavericks -7