Warriors vs. Clippers Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Nov. 30
Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Clippers on Thursday, Nov. 30 — our expert betting picks and prediction for tonight.
The Los Angeles Clippers face the Golden State Warriors in San Francisco on Thursday. Neither team has played to form lately, so this will serve as a get-right spot for both teams.
The Warriors are coming off an emotional loss to the Kings on Tuesday night — a loss that prevented Golden State from advancing to the Knockout Round of the NBA In-Season Tournament. The Warriors had a 24-point lead, but that wasn’t enough to put away the Kings, who needed a win or a loss by 11 or fewer to advance. A fourth-quarter comeback and a late bucket by Malik Monk meant the Kings both advanced and gained a game on the Warriors in the Western Conference and the Pacific Division.
The Clippers are coming off a tough loss of their own. They lost to a Nuggets team that was severely depleted on Sunday, playing without Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.
The stage is set, so let's get to our Warriors vs. Clippers pick and prediction.
Warriors vs. Clippers Prediction
Pick: Under 227.5
Clippers Betting Outlook
This team has been a massive disappointment and things have only compounded since the James Harden trade. I wrote about his fit (or lack thereof) in my last game guide, so I won’t go into too much detail here, but this hasn’t been a harmonious pairing. The Clippers get worse with Harden on the court and Ty Lue is still figuring out rotations — something that isn’t easily done with so many stars and egos to consider.
Russell Westbrook volunteered to come off the bench a few games into the Harden experiment and that seemed ease things somewhat. Westbrook was deferring more and shooting less, but has since reverted back to his old style, which has been part of the problem. There are simply too many stars with similar playstyles and skillsets, and not enough defense or size in the frontcourt. It’s not a hopeless experiment, but it will require some tinkering, either with the roster or the rotations.
One thing that’s changed since Harden’s arrival is the pace of play. The Clippers weren’t the seven-seconds-or-less Suns, but they were 12th in pace before Harden's arrival in L.A. Since trading for Harden, they’ve dropped to 21st and unders are 1-10 (not counting Wednesday's game against Sacramento).
Warriors Betting Outlook
To make matters worse for Golden State, their duel with Sacramento also resulted in a loss of personnel as Gary Payton II and Chris Paul both left with injuries. Payton II will be out indefinitely with a torn calf, while Paul is day-to-day with a nerve injury in his lower leg that will keep him out of this matchup. Payton’s absence will certainly be felt as he's one of Golden State's go-to on-ball perimeter defenders. But Paul is a bigger loss, at least in the on/off numbers.
According to pbpstats.com, the Warriors take just over a five-point hit on both offense and defense in minutes without Paul, who plays a lot of his minutes with the second unit.
Golden State has made a concerted effort to improve its bench play since last season. This season, the Warriors rank fifth in the league in bench points per game (41.9). However, the starting unit has been a bit of an issue, relatively speaking — especially at home. The Warriors are just 2-7 ATS in the first quarter at Chase Center.
Warriors vs. Clippers Picks, Odds
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 227 -110o / -110u | +114 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 227 -110o / -110u | -134 |
I’d normally be eyeing the first quarter in this game, but I don’t know if I’ll play it given the circumstances. The Clippers came out of the gate firing on all cylinders against the Kings after their most embarrassing loss of the season — something they’ve done quite often lately. Since acquiring Harden, the Clippers are 7-4 ATS in the first quarter, and I mentioned the Warriors troubles starting games.
However, the Warriors are coming off an emotional loss to the Kings, while the Clippers are riding high after a win. I think the Warriors will come out firing, but I don’t know if they’ll have the personnel to execute.
Instead, I’ll look to the total.
The Clippers are 10-1 to the under since the Harden trade. However, the Warriors have been playing in high-scoring games lately — they’re 7-3 to the over in their past 10. However, with the Clippers on a back-to-back and the Warriors getting Draymond Green back, I think we'll see a lower-scoring game. After all, five of those 10 overs came in games Green missed (suspension). Over the first eight games of the season, the Warriors were 5-3 to the under.
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