Clippers vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Picks for Friday, Jan. 12
Here's everything you need to know about Clippers vs. Grizzlies on Friday, Jan. 12 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
With Ja Morant out for the season and Marcus Smart now joining him on the sidelines for a bit, the Grizzlies' season has taken yet another turn, and it appears to be headed for a bit of a lost season. Of course, that's not to say they will be rolling over each night. In fact, they swept their recent three-game road trip, the latter two games were without Morant.
However, it is to say that priorities will be shifted. One player who appears ready to take a leap that we were expecting maybe earlier in the season is Jaren Jackson Jr. I'll be looking at his impact on both ends for a couple of player props for Friday night's matchup.
Let's get to our Clippers vs. Grizzlies prediction and pick.
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Prediction
Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 23.5 Points, Paul George Under 22.5
Clippers Betting Outlook
Triple J came into the season with the potential to see a big increase in production as a 24-year old with his team's top producer sidelined to start the season. Teammate Desmond Bane was the one drawing Most Improved Player eyes, but it was actually Jackson Jr. who saw the biggest bumps in usage when Morant was off the court in 2022-23. Per pbpstats.com, Jackson's usage rate went from 19.5 with Morant on the court to 29.8 with him off last season, compared to just a 3.8% bump for Bane. The duo's points per 100 possessions mirrored that exact same split, so heading into the 2023-24 season it was fair to wonder if a Jackson breakout would occur in the first 25 games.
Instead, of the 36 games Memphis has played this season, JJJ averaged literally the exact same number for his points per game (18.6) in the first half (18 games) of this season to date. However, starting around the beginning of December, Jackson has started to really take off. In the second "half" of this season so far, he is averaging 23.9 points per game, including 28 points in his most recent outing without Ja.
Triple J's usage and points per 100 possession numbers are once again popping with Morant off the court this season, and he now has the added bump of no Marcus Smart, for whom his usage and points per 100 possessions also rise notably when he's off the court. The book have sniffed this out a bit, hanging 23.5 points as his line for Friday night, but considering the double bump in usage coming from no Morant or Smart, and I am fine with this number.
Grizzlies Betting Outlook
The other, more ballyhooed, impact of JJJ is his defense. And it's on that side that I am looking for my second prop. The Grizzlies' defense, despite alllll the injuries this season, still ranks eight in the league, per Dunks and Threes. Their defense against opposing forwards ranks ninth in the league in terms of fewest points allowed to that position, and Jackson's rim protection numbers are still very elite.
Add that to the fact that Paul George's PPG is slightly misleading this season because of that five-game stretch of the season before Harden arrived (28.8 points per game and a far higher usage rate in those games), and I like George under 22.5 points. This is another one the books sniffed out to a small degree (they had been hanging 23.5 in most of his previous games), but I still see enough of an edge to recommend the bet.
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Picks, Odds
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8 -108 | 226.5 -110 / -110 | -320 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8 +112 | 226.5 -110 / -110 | +260 |
Jackson Jr.'s impact on both ends of the floor is going to be felt on Friday night, with Ja Morant and Marcus Smart out — the two players who impact his usage most. As such, I'll be taking his points prop over 23.5, along with George's points prop under 22.5.
