The Boston Celtics are not used to coming off losses this season; it's only happened 14 times in five months. But while the worst thing about the NBA is that after a great win, you have to go right back at it in two days, the best thing is that after a brutal loss in two days you have a chance to forget all about it.
The Phoenix Suns are all over the place. They had their best win of the season vs. the Nuggets, just two days after one of their toughest losses at home to the Thunder. They are without Devin Booker, having played just 23 games this season with Kevin Durant, Booker and Bradley Beal on the floor together. But they have gotten phenomenal play from Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen, and if they find a way to win this one, they will officially be surging.
That disparity is reflected in the Celtics vs Suns odds, where Boston is a 5- to 5.5-point favorite over Phoenix on Saturday night. The Suns need every win to avoid the play-in tournament (they are a half-game ahead of the Kings for 6th). The Celtics have very little left to accomplish in the regular season, but losing to Denver will leave a sour taste they'll want to rid themselves of.
Here are some key numbers and best bets for Celtics vs Suns.
Celtics vs Suns Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -120 | 226.5 -108o / -112u | -218 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 +100 | 226.5 -108o / -112u | +180 |
Celtics vs Suns: Can Boston Bounce Back After Brutal Loss?
Celtics vs Suns Betting Trends
A CONTROL ISSUE
The Suns give up the fourth-most points off turnovers per 100 possessions in the league this year. They have a turnover issue, and Kevin Durant and Eric Gordon, in particular, have turnover issues in the half court. Boston, on the other hand, has the league's best turnover rate. Under these conditions, there's a strong trend: teams that average fewer turnovers per game than the Suns are 29-18-2 ATS (61.7%) against Phoenix this season.
ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW
The Celtics suffered a tough loss Thursday against the defending champions in Denver. Teams on the road after facing the Nuggets in Denver this season are 4-8 ATS. It's a bit of a letdown spot.
NO CHARITY, NO OVER
The Suns have the second-highest free throw rate in the league this season. But a curious thing has happened since the All-Star Break. Free throw rates have dropped considerably. Foul rates on drives are down by 11% since the All-Star Break, and teams that are top-five in free throw rate (the Magic, Bucks, Suns, Sixers and Wolves) are down nearly 16%.
As a result, the under trend league-wide since the break has been even more extreme for those teams. The under is 33-8 in that span, 80.5%.
The under is 8-3 this season in Suns games vs. teams with the five-lowest opponent free throw rates (i.e., teams that don't foul).
HOME, HOME ON THE MID-RANGE
The Celtics have the second-best overall defense and allow the second-lowest percentage at the rim and from 3-point range. But they allow the 10th-most shots from mid-range because their switch-heavy scheme encourages it. Do you know who takes and makes a ton of mid-range shots?
Kevin Durant, who is shooting 50.3% from mid-range. KD has taken over more playmaking duties without Booker and has gone over his assists prop in 13 of the last 20 games. His points and assists prop is set at 32.5.
GLASS MAN
Jusuf Nurkic is on a rebounding tear. He's had double-digit rebounds in each of the last six games, including games with 22 and a whopping 31 rebounds. The Celtics are 15th in rebounds allowed per game (though they are top-five in rebound percentage allowed).
KEY MATCHUP: GRAYSON ALLEN VS. BOSTON'S 3-POINT DEFENSE
Allen hit his first eight threes in the win over Denver and followed that up in the next game vs. Toronto by setting the franchise record for made 3's in the quarter. Boston allows the fourth-most 3-point attempts per 100 possessions but the second-lowest percentage. If Allen's phenomenal shooting (he's shooting 47.3%!) continues, that will tilt this game because when the Suns make more 3's than their opponent they are 17-6 straight up and 14-8-1 ATS (63%).
Boston's switching defense and perimeter defenders in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White should help but if those players roam to help against Beal, Booker and Nurkic, Allen could catch them napping.
NO COFFEE FOR YOU
The Suns are the worst ATS team against the pre-game fourth-quarter spread in the league at 18-42-2 via EVAnalytics.com. League average win percentage with a lead in the 4th quarter is 83% this season. The Suns are at just 77%. Phoenix has just four wins this season after trailing after the third quarter.
Celtics vs Suns Best Bets
Under the total: The trend on these teams that are free throw-dependent swings me too much. The Suns are 8-0 to the under since the All-Star Break.
Same Game Parlay +234:
- Celtics ML (-225)
- Under 226.5 (-110)
- Nurkic 10+ Rebounds (-260)
The game script is that the Celtics bounce back from a loss which they've been great at this season, the lack of fouls keeps the game under and Nurk's ability to get position on a smaller Boston team, combined with more misses in a defensive struggle, gets him to 10 boards.
Kevin Durant points and assists over 32.5: KD puts the team on his back even if I think it won't be enough for the win.
