Celtics vs. Pacers Prediction, Picks
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Pacers on Monday, Jan. 8 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Celtics will look to beat the Pacers in back-to-back games after a blowout win over Indiana on Saturday night. Can they steal a road win or will the Pacers defend their home court?
Let's get to our Celtics vs. Pacers prediction and pick.
Celtics vs. Pacers Prediction
Pick: Over 245
Celtics vs Pacers Betting Outlook
The Celtics are listing Jayson Tatum (left ankle sprain management) and Kristaps Porziņģis (right eye irritation) as questionable for this one, so monitor the injury report.
Boston has an offensive rating of 120.4 and a defensive rating of 111.5 when both of Tatum and Porziņģis are off the court this season, so they are basically maintaining their efficiency on both ends without these two. Porziņģis' absence would be noteworthy, as the Celtics' defense is 4.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
Porziņģis is easily their best rim protector, and they will need to defend the rim here as we just saw the Pacers generate a 42% rim rate on offense against the Celtics on Saturday night. The Pacers were unable to convert on many of those looks, but I would expect them to perform better in that department if Al Horford is logging the majority of the minutes down low.
The Pacers also shot just 19.5% from distance Saturday, so they are likely due for some positive shooting regression from beyond the arc as well.
Another thing to keep an eye on here is Payton Pritchard’s minutes because the Celtics' offense has performed well with Pritchard on the court. Boston has an elite offensive rating of 125.5 with Pritchard on the floor. Pritchard should see the largest minutes increase if Tatum is unable to go, but we will also be seeing more Sam Hauser. Pritchard and Hauser are effective offensive players but definitely limit the Celtics' ability to defend at the point of attack.
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Celtics vs. Pacers Picks, Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 247.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 247.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
It doesn’t take much to convince me to bet an over in a Pacers game, and I think we are getting a discount on this total for two reasons: the outlier poor shooting game from the Pacers on Saturday and the Celtics injury report.
And if Tatum and Porziņģis are unable to go, you could make a case the total should move up given how much length and rim protection those two provide. Either way, I think the Celtics have enough shooting off the bench to exploit this horrible Pacers defense. These are the top two teams in schedule-adjusted offensive rating, according to dunksandthrees.com, and I think they will be able to clear this number at 245 regardless of who ends up taking the floor.
Pick: Over 245
