Celtics vs. Pacers Prediction, Picks for Monday, Dec. 4
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Pacers on Monday, Dec. 4 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Indiana Pacers have been one of the stories of the year as we hit the third month of the NBA season, and in securing the second seed in the NBA's In-Season Tournament on the Eastern Conference side of things, they've set themselves up with a home game against the Boston Celtics, which presents an opportunity to send a message to the rest of the league.
The problem? Indiana enters Monday with a host of injury concerns and looks to be on shaky ground entering a matchup with one of the best teams in basketball.
Can the Pacers overcome those issues and put a scare into Boston here?
Let's get to our Celtics vs. Pacers prediction and pick.
Celtics vs. Pacers Prediction
Pick: Under 246
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Celtics Betting Outlook
Boston has been without Kristaps Porzingis for the past three games after the big man suffered a calf injury against the Orlando Magic a week ago, but it hasn't seemed to slow its roll.
In fact, the Celtics are a perfect 4-0 without Porzingis in the lineup, boasting two wins over the Sixers and one over the Atlanta Hawks. All but one of those has come at home, however, and in theory the loss of Porzingis does mean one of the greatest strengths of this team, which is its ability to protect the rim, will take a step back.
Boston ranks first in the NBA when it comes to field goal defense at the rim this year, according to Cleaning the Glass, and will be up against a team which has taken a strong 35.7% of its shots within four feet of the basket, which ranks seventh in the NBA.
The Celtics also rank fifth in rebounding, but the good news here is that their rebounding rate has grown by 1.7 percentage points in the minutes they've played without Porzingis.
Boston's defense has remained strong overall without Porzingis, as has its rebounding prowess, so it should still be able to give Indiana its best shot here. With that said, however, it has yet to face an offense as complete as Indiana's, which can do damage from anywhere on the floor.
Pacers Betting Outlook
The Pacers, true to their name, have played at the fastest pace in basketball through 18 games. They have ranked just outside the top five in transition possessions, and fifth in points per play in transition and first in points per possession.
This has undoubtedly been the most efficient aspect of what's been the hottest offense in basketball, and it has tested the limits of some of the top defenses in the NBA.
The problem here is that we simply have no idea who's going to be suiting up for this one. Tyrese Haliburton is under the weather and Obi Toppin is dealing with an ankle sprain.
They may join Jalen Smith on the sideline for this one as they enter with questionable tags, and Haliburton's ailment seems to be serious enough to threaten his absence here given he missed Saturday's game against the Heat.
At least in Toppin's case, the injury is new and hasn't forced him out of action — he played nearly 35 minutes against Miami.
While the status of those two is ominous, and the absence of Hailburton would certainly be a back-breaker given he's the unquestioned leader of this offense, there's still a pretty decent chance that one or even both play in this one.
Of course, no one would blame you for waiting for the news and attempting to time your bet on this one, but reading into the line it certainly seems as if oddsmakers are expecting both to play.
Indiana was a 13-point underdog against Boston in what turned out to be a blowout loss very early in the season, and while it has improved dramatically since that game, this seems to be where oddsmakers would land with Haliburton on the floor for Indiana.
Celtics vs. Pacers Picks, Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 246 -110 / -110 | -215 |
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 246 -110 / -110 | +180 |
Including the Pacers, the Celtics are a perfect 4-0 this season against teams ranked inside the top five in pace. Their transition defense ranks second in points per play this year, and while they rank 17th in turnovers per game they are first when it comes to steals leading to transition opportunities for opponents.
Furthermore, while the frontcourt defense does theoretically take a hit without Porzingis on the floor, the numbers have indicated that this team has done just fine without him both in defending the rim and rebounding the ball.
I think the matchup calls for a Celtics win, but it's a terrifying thought to lay six points with a team that is just 2-6-2 against the spread as road favorites this season. This should be a huge game with a thunderous atmosphere in Indiana, and I'm not sold that the Celtics will run the Pacers out of the gym like they did earlier this year in Boston.
With that, I'm going to pivot to the total. I have serious doubts about the Pacers' ability to score on a Boston defense that has been so good, particularly in transition, and while the Under is just 2-2 in those four games I mentioned above against the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, the last two have gone under.
Boston's offense has slowed just a bit, and most of its success this season has come from beyond the arc. The Celtics have shot a blistering 40.6% from three at home this year but are just 32.9% from three on the road this season, which could help a lowly Pacers defense look a bit better here.
So, while this game may feature plenty of possessions I think this number is inflated by a decent amount. I'm comfortable playing this down to 242 points.
Pick: Under 246 (-110)
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