Celtics vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks for Monday, Jan. 22
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Mavericks on Monday, Jan. 22 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Celtics will travel from Houston to Dallas to take on the Mavericks on a back to back tonight. Can the Mavericks capitalize on their massive four-day rest advantage? Or will the Celtics continue to dominate everyone they play?
Let's get to our Celtics vs. Mavericks prediction and pick.
Celtics vs. Mavericks Prediction
Pick: Over 239 (-110)
Celtics Betting Outlook
The Celtics are coming off a back to back so monitor the injury report but I would expect Al Horford and Jrue Holiday to certainly play here as both guys sat last night against the Rockets. The Celtics should be able to have their way on offense here as the Mavericks rank 25th in adjusted defensive rating despite playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses this season.
Rookie Center Dereck Lively is their defensive anchor but much of his impact is due to his rim protection which may be muted here given the Celtics proclivity for the three ball. Boston ranks No. 1 in the NBA in three-point attempt rate (43.5%) and just 27th in rim rate (29.2%). The Mavs have struggled to defend beyond the arc as they rank 17th in three-point attempt rate allowed and three-point accuracy allowed.
This all sets up to be an outstanding matchup for the Celtics offense as they should be able to stretch Lively away from the rim and force Luka and Kyrie to defend on the perimeter.
Maximize your Celtics vs. Mavericks action with our FanDuel promo code.
Mavericks Betting Outlook
On the flip side, the Celtics also allow a ton of threes as they rank 25th in three-point attempt rate allowed. The Mavericks offense is second in three-point attempt rate (42.4%) and just 29th in offensive rim rate (27.5%). The Celtics excel at taking away the rim as they rank second-best in rim rate allowed (29.6%), and they will need to keep that up here against Luka Doncic.
Doncic has been elite this season but I think he could struggle a little bit here with Jrue Holiday and Derrick White on him for most of the game. No one is going to shut down Luka but if you had to pick a guard tandem to try and contain him White and Holiday is a great duo to have on your team.
Ultimately, I think the Mavs will need their role players to step up and make shots here if they want a chance of hanging with the Celtics in this one.
Celtics vs. Mavericks Picks, Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 239.5 -110 / -110 | -142 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 239.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
On paper, this matchup should favor the Celtics but this is an odd situational spot where the Mavericks have a massive four-day rest advantage over the Celtics. The Celtics are also on a back to back having played the Rockets last night.
This is the healthiest the Mavericks have been all season as Josh Green and Maxi Kleber are returning to the rotation as well. I think this all sets up to be a great spot to back the Mavericks but I just can’t trust their defense against this elite Celtics offense. So instead I will be backing the over here as I think the Celtics defense could be a step slow due to fatigue.
The Mavericks offense is elite as they rank eighth in adjusted offensive rating despite playing the single most difficult schedule of opposing defenses this season. The exact opposite is true with their defense as they are 25th in defensive rating despite playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
Both these teams are playing faster than they have in years past as the Mavs rank 10th in pace while the Celtics are 17th. Take the over 239 here and play this up to 240.
Pick: Over 239 (-110)
