Celtics vs. Clippers Prediction, Picks for Saturday, Dec. 23
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Clippers on Saturday, Dec. 23 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Clippers will seek to start a new winning streak when they host the Celtics in an early Saturday afternoon tipoff. Despite its 134-115 road loss to Oklahoma City, Los Angeles looks utterly different from the team that, earlier in the season, lost six straight games to fall to 3-7.
However, you could argue that it was only a matter of time before this team got on the same page. Los Angeles boasts three legitimate stars: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is that Harden hasn't been a complete liability defensively. In this preview, I'll explore why the Clippers' defense could pose a stiff test for the Celtics on the road.
Celtics vs. Clippers Prediction
Pick: Clippers +1.5 or better
Celtics Betting Outlook
As good as the Celtics have looked this season, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they're the best team in the league. For example, per NBA.com, Philadelphia has a Net Rating value of 11.5, 2.4 points higher than Boston's (9.4).
But when you dig into the numbers, you'll find Boston benefits from a league-best 15.7 Net Rating at home. On the road, that number drops to 2.3.
Before you get too worked up, this isn't me trying to throw shade on Boston. I'm just pointing out that the Celtics can be had— in the right spot —against the right team.
We know the Celtics like to bomb away from behind the perimeter, as they lead the league with 42.9 3-point attempts per game. Boston averages nearly two more attempts on the road (43.8) versus at home (42.1).
Interestingly, Boston puts up more 3-pointers on the road than at home despite having less success. The Celtics average 14.8 3-point field goals on the road compared to 17.2 at home.
It's almost like the Celtics don't have a backup plan if things aren't going their way on the road. A good defensive team can certainly exploit this on its home court when the Celtics come to town.
Clippers Betting Outlook
Harden's addition to the Clippers has undoubtedly been a boost offensively. Per Team Rankings, Los Angeles improved its efficiency from 111.6 points per 100 possessions in the previous campaign to 114.7.
But what stood out is that Harden's arrival hasn't hurt the Clippers defensively. Los Angeles allows 109.3 points per 100 possessions, down from 111.5 last season.
The biggest key to the Clippers' season thus far has been the availability of their two best players. Leonard and George have been relatively healthy, missing just three games all year.
Among players who played 20 or more games this season while averaging at least 30 minutes, Leonard ranks 10th in Defensive Rating with a value of 108.6.
George isn't too far behind, as he ranks 24th on that list.
If you look at the box scores for the Celtics' games, you might think they play incredibly fast, given the high scores in their games.
However, Boston ranks only 22nd in pace with 102.2 possessions per game. The Clippers are in that ballpark, ranking 25th (102 possessions per game) in pace.
A slower pace would suit the Clippers because it would give them ample time to set their defense in half-court sets.
Celtics vs. Clippers Picks, Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 231 -110 / -110 | +100 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 231 -110 / -110 | -120 |
Although Boston's perfect at home (14-0), it's only one game above .500 on the road (7-6). Thus, bettors should be somewhat cautious if backing this team away from home.
The Clippers have certainly had success in this series when playing at home, as they're 4-1 straight up in this spot, with three of those wins coming as underdogs.
Moreover, if we look at the last 10 meetings (both home and away) dating back to 2019, the Clippers are 6-4 straight up and against the spread (ATS).
The numbers suggest the Celtics have been the better overall team throughout those seasons. However, they seem to stub their toe when they come up against these Clippers.
With Leonard and George seemingly in and out of the lineup over the years, the Clippers have had to be sound defensively. I also think there's a bit of coaching edge here with the Clippers' Tyronn Lue against Boston's Joe Mazzula.
Ultimately, this game will likely boil down to which side embraces the defensive challenge.
Boston's struggles on the road tend to come against solid defensive teams. Our Action Labs database shows that Boston is 1-4 ATS this season when facing an opponent on the road with a defensive efficiency of 111 or better.
The Clippers fit that criteria, and I think they're a live dog catching 1.5 points in this spot.
Pick: Clippers +1.5 or better
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