Celtics vs. Bucks Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Jan. 11
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Bucks on Thursday, Jan. 11 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the hardest teams to slow down this season, but with four losses in their last five games they've never been more vulnerable. As the Bucks look to rebound, the red-hot Celtics are waiting next. Will their struggles on the road continue or will this offense once again overwhelm a middling Milwaukee defense?
Let's get to our Celtics vs. Bucks prediction and pick.
Celtics vs. Bucks Prediction
Pick: Bucks -4.5 (-110)
Celtics Betting Outlook
The Celtics remain one of the most dangerous offenses in the game of basketball. They've put up 125 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games and over that span have shot an impressive 38.6% from 3-point range. It's no surprise that the second-most efficient offense in basketball relies heavily upon the outside shot, ranking first in 3-point frequency according to Cleaning the Glass and sixth in shooting percentage, but it's a storyline worth watching here against a Bucks team which has defended the perimeter quite well this year.
The only time these two teams met this season, a game which took place in Boston, the Celtics managed to shoot 40.5% from outside while allowing Milwaukee to hit 38.2% of its 3-point looks. They actually lost the turnover battle and were out-rebounded by their opponents, but survived on the back of their interior defense.
Boston ranks third in defending the rim, which is certainly the biggest key for the visitors on the other side of the ball. We've seen this team have success all over the floor on the defensive side, but it's clear that it will lean on Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford in the frontcourt — and getting Porzingis back on the second night of a back-to-back will be a huge boost to a tired team.
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Bucks Betting Outlook
The Bucks aren't quite themselves right now. Over the last 10 games, they've knocked down just 36.8% of looks from long-range which ranks 20th in the NBA, which is a sorely disappointing mark for a team ranked inside the top five in the league in outside shooting for most of the season.
The good news is that they remain dominant within four feet of the rim, shooting better than 70% in that area of the floor, and that's where they take a lot of their shots. They also fancy the 3-pointer, as alluded to above, and while they've shot slightly better on the road a 37.4% 3-point success rate at home is nothing to scoff at.
Speaking of the perimeter, the Bucks have been excellent in defending three-pointers over the last 10 games, ranking first in the NBA with just a 29.6% hit rate against them. It's quite a staggering number, but for a team ranked fourth in defending the outside shot it's certainly no surprise to see them remain dominant in that area.
Celtics vs. Bucks Picks, Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 243 -110 / -110 | +160 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 243 -110 / -110 | -190 |
The Bucks may have a hard time scoring inside, but their shooting numbers are bound to turn around given the success we've seen them have from outside over the course of the season. They found a way through Boston's 14th-ranked 3-point defense the last time these two teams squared off, and they dominated the game in almost every facet despite losing in heartbreaking fashion.
Boston's outside shooting, meanwhile, has taken a massive hit on the road this season which is the main reason why it's just 11-8 in these games. Sure, the Celtics may make life difficult on the Bucks inside, but on the road against a great 3-point defense, I don't see this offense keeping pace.
I'm going to lay the points here with the fresher team, and the one which dominated the last meeting. Had that game been held in Milwaukee, I'm confident the Bucks would have won by multiple possessions.
Pick: Bucks -4.5 (-110)
