Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks for Wednesday, Dec. 27
Here's everything you need to know about Cavaliers vs. Mavericks on Wednesday, Dec. 27 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
Let's get to our Cavaliers vs. Mavericks prediction and pick.
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Prediction
Pick: Over 234
Cavaliers Betting Outlook
The Cavaliers will have a two-day rest edge over the Mavericks as they haven’t played since Saturday. Many predicted the demise of the Cavaliers after they lost Darius Garland and Evan Mobley to injury, but that hasn’t come to fruition as Cleveland has gone 4-1 over its past five games. Their 3-point attempt rate has skyrocketed during this stretch as they rank first in 3-point attempt rate (46.1%) over the past five games.
I’m believe the Cavaliers can remain a top offense without Garland, as long as Donovan Mitchell is on the floor alongside the shooters. Blindly chucking up 3s can get a team in trouble, but I’d argue that the Cavaliers are more than capable of spacing the floor effectively. On the season, the Cavaliers have a 120.5 offensive rating with Mitchell on the floor and Garland and Mobley off the floor across 440 possessions. Their defensive rating in these scenarios is a poor 120.8. Ultimately, this is a team that can put up points, but will struggle defensively without Mobley.
Mavericks Betting Outlook
The Mavericks are coming off an impressive Christmas day upset over the Suns in which Luka Doncic scored 50 points on 60% shooting. Doncic is emerging as a legitimate MVP candidate and hasn't missed a beat despite missing his co-star, Kyrie Irving, for most of the season. Doncic is shooting career highs from 3 (40%), at the rim (77%) and at the free throw line (79%).
Subjectively, he has looked a lot more engaged on the defensive end and has slimmed out a bit in terms of his weight. The Mavericks have completely re-shaped their offensive identity as they have gone from playing at a bottom-five pace over the past three seasons to ranking eighth in pace. Doncic should continue to dominate in this matchup as the Cavaliers' defense is mostly devoid of competent perimeter defenders. Cleveland's defense was heavily reliant on Mobley’s rim protection and versatility, but without him, I expect Cleveland to struggle on that end of the floor.
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Picks, Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6 | 233 -110/-110 | +187 |
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6 | 233 -110/-110 | -226 |
As long as Mitchell is able to go, I'll be betting Over 234 as I think both offenses should be able to remain relatively efficient. The Cavaliers don't have a good matchup for Doncic and the Mavericks' defense has struggled all season. The Mavericks rank 24th in defensive rating, despite playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Rookie Dereck Lively is already a very good rim protector, but some of his impact will be muted given the Cavaliers sky-high 3-point attempt rate. Take the over and play it to 236.
