Cavaliers vs. Heat Picks, Predictions | Best Bet for Friday
Here's everything you need to know about Cavaliers vs. Heat on Friday, Dec. 7 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to South Beach to face off with the Miami Heat on Friday night. The teams sport matching 12-9 records and there are a few key names either out or questionable for both teams.
The Cavaliers will be without Caris LeVert and Evan Mobley is listed as questionable. On the Heat side, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro will be out.
With all these players out, there are opportunities to be found for bettors. So, let's get to our Cavaliers vs. Heat prediction and pick.
Cavaliers vs. Heat Prediction
Pick: Caleb Martin Points + Rebounds + Assists Over
Cavaliers Betting Outlook
The Heat and Cavaliers, in many ways, mirror each other. They are defensively oriented, patient teams in the second tier in the East. As such, it's far from surprising that this game is right around a pick 'em, with the line having opened at Heat -2 and moving to Cavaliers -1 with the news of Adebayo and Herro being officially out.
If we look at the season as a whole, the Cavaliers have the slightly better adjusted net rating, coming in at +2.1 compared to +1.5 for the Heat. Interestingly enough, if Mobley misses the game, even the injury reports will be nearly mirrored — a great defensive forward with passing skills and a score-first guard out for each team. With those four all out, I would make this game Heat -1.5, and if Mobley were to play, it's right around Cavaliers -1. As such, if Mobley does play, and the line moves further to Miami, I could see landing on that side, but it's too close to call right now.
As for the total, these are two of the slowest paced teams in the league, so it's no surprise to see an opening total of just 218.5. Cleveland's defense is back to its near peak self of late, with the second-best non-garbage time defense in the past two weeks, per Cleaning the Glass. The Heat, however, have seen a notable dip, with the third-worst defense in the past two weeks. While part of that is playing the Pacers twice, along with the Bucks, I also think Adebayo's absence out is key to those struggles, so I'll be avoiding the total.
Heat Betting Outlook
However, there are still player props to dive in to, and whenever several key players are out, there are opportunities to be had. Caleb Martin has re-emerged lately. The fifth-year pro, who had an outstanding postseason, has had a brutal start to the 2023-24 season. However, in his past five games, he's averaging 18.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists. Before last game, Martin's points + rebounds + assists closed at 21.5, but that will likely jump based on his most recent performance. His recent jump has been tethered to a jump in minutes that is unlikely to cede based on his recent play. Therefore, if we get 24.5 or lower, I'll take Martin's over.
Cavaliers vs. Heat Picks, Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -112 | 222 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -108 | 222 -110o / -110u | -105 |
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If Mobley is ruled in and the line moves more toward Cleveland, I'll be looking at Miami as a home 'dog.
Otherwise, my favorite play is Caleb Martin's Points + Rebounds + Assists Over, as long as it's below 24.5.
