Celtics vs. Cavaliers Pick, Prediction for Tuesday, Dec. 12
Here's everything you need to know about Cavaliers vs. Celtics on Tuesday, Dec. 12 — our expert betting pick and prediction for tonight.
The Cavaliers (13-10) continue their four-game road trip when they head north for two games in Boston. It's a quick turnaround for a Cleveland team looking to bounce back from a 104-94 loss to the Orlando Magic on Monday night.
Although the NBA is only a quarter of the way through the season, Orlando (16-7) looks like a legitimate contender, occupying the second overall seed in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics (16-5) currently hold the top seed, making this road trip for the Cavaliers potentially perilous.
It won't help that Cleveland could be without two key players — Evan Mobley (16 points per game) and Caris LeVert (14.9). Both players are battling knee soreness and haven't competed together since a Nov. 30 home loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Mobley's absence could be the biggest challenge for the Cavaliers if they plan to slow down the Celtics' Kristaps Porzingis. In this preview, I'll share why Porzingis will likely play a key role when handicapping this matchup.
Let's get to our Cavaliers vs. Celtics pick and prediction.
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Prediction
Pick: Same-game parlay (+148): Celtics ML (-450) / Porzingis 15+ points (-260) / Porzingis 20+ points (+130)
Cavaliers Betting Outlook
After finishing 11th in offensive efficiency last season with 111.8 points per 100 possessions, Cleveland is down to 24th (108.2 points per 100 possessions) in this campaign, per TeamRankings. And when you're already in the bottom third of the league offensively, replacing 30 points of offense won't be easy should Mobley and LeVert remain sidelined.
As a result, it's difficult to see how the Cavaliers can keep pace with a Celtics team that ranks seventh in offensive efficiency with 114.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Cavaliers are relying on their defense again this season, ranking eighth in efficiency, allowing 108 points per 100 possessions. However, it's worth noting that Cleveland finished first in defensive efficiency last season.
Cleveland defends the three-point line very well. The Cavaliers rank eighth in three-pointers allowed per game (33.3) and 10th in opponent three-point field goals (11.9 per game).
Their perimeter defense must be at its best against a Celtics team that sits atop the league in three-point attempts (42.9 per game) and second in three-pointers made (15.6 per game).
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Celtics Betting Outlook
There's been an apparent change in the Celtics basketball philosophy over the past few years. In the 2021-22 season, Boston attempted 37 three-pointers per game. Last season, that number climbed to 41.8. Through 23 games this season, it has risen to 42.9.
Floor spacing is key for the Celtics, as they boast a starting lineup with all five players who can stroke it from the perimeter. Porzingis certainly gives them that option after replacing Robert Williams III at center.
What's surprising about Boston is that while Williams was often viewed as the team's defensive rim protector, the Celtics are playing better defense this season. Boston ranks fourth in efficiency, allowing 106.3 points per 100 possessions, down from 108.6 in the prior campaign.
If you look at players around the league who average at least 30 minutes per game, Porzingis' 106.8 defensive rating is right behind that of Mobley's 106.7. Just last season, the Latvian star had a defensive rating of 114.8.
Thus, when you look at how he's been acclimated since joining the Celtics, Porzingis might be the key should Boston have a successful season.
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Cavaliers vs. Celtics Pick, Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10 | 223.5 -108/-112 | +380 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10 | 223.5 -108/-112 | -500 |
It's tough to have a good feel for the Cavaliers in this matchup without fully knowing the statuses of Mobley and LeVert. My model makes Cleveland closer to a 9.5-point underdog, which is not enough of an edge for me to side with the visitors.
However, I don't want to lay 10 points with the Celtics should Mobley and LeVert play. Instead, I prefer taking a much more creative approach to this game.
The Celtics have proven to be a more formidable team at home, averaging 122.8 points per 100 possessions. Boston is a perfect 10-0 at TD Garden, and Porzingis has scored 21 points in four straight games at home.
At FanDuel, you can put together a three-leg same-game parlay (+148) with the Celtics to win the game (-450), combined with Porzingis's scoring props of 15+ (-260) and 20+ points (+130).
Pick: Same-game parlay (+148): Celtics ML (-450) / Porzingis 15+ points (-260) / Porzingis 20+ points (+130)
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