Cavaliers vs. Celtics Prediction, Picks for Thursday, Dec. 14
Here's everything you need to know about Cavaliers vs. Celtics on Thursday, Dec. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Cavaliers will wrap up their road trip in Boston as they face the Celtics for the second time in three nights. Cleveland is 1-2 on the trip after suffering back-to-back losses against Orlando and Boston.
Initially, it looked like the Cavaliers were ready to make amends for their loss in Orlando as they jumped out to a 29-14 lead in the first quarter against the Celtics on Tuesday. However, Boston roared back, outscoring Cleveland in each of the final three quarters before winning 120-113.
While the Celtics remained perfect at home, improving to 11-0, their seven-point victory wasn't enough to cover the 11.5-point spread.
With these teams set to meet yet again in such quick succession, the point spread offers plenty of intrigue after the Celtics were bet up to -11 after opening at -10.5 at one sportsbook. Since then, we've seen the spread bet down as low as -8.5.
In this preview, we'll try to make sense of the line movement and assess the right price to jump in for this matchup.
Let's get to our Cavaliers vs. Celtics prediction and pick.
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Prediction
Pick: Cavaliers Alt spread +9.5 (-120)
Cavaliers Playing with LeVert
It doesn't hurt that I provided the handicap on the Cavaliers-Celtics meeting just a few days ago. A big part of my analysis was that Cleveland had two key players on the injury report: Evan Mobley and Caris LeVert.
Replacing them wouldn't be easy since both players combine to average 30 points per game. As a result, I wasn't prepared to side with the Cavaliers, given the uncertainty surrounding the two players.
However, LeVert did manage to play, contributing 11 points in 23 minutes on 5-of-11 shooting.
While the status of LeVert and Mobley impacted my handicap heading into the game, I still felt laying 10 points with the Celtics was a bit too steep. The game ended up closing with Boston as high as an 11.5-point favorite.
Since I preferred the Cavaliers getting 10 points without any confirmation of whether their key players would return from injury, I'm almost obliged to fancy their chances in a similar price range (+9.5 points) with LeVert now back with the team.
Celtics Playing the Math Game
A critical piece of my handicap centered on Boston's perimeter shooting. The Celtics entered the game leading the league in 3-point attempts (42.9 per game) and second in 3-pointers made (15.6 per game).
Boston would knock down 18 3-pointers on 44 attempts (40.9%) on Tuesday night. However, the Celtics allowed the Cavaliers to shoot 19-for-45 (42.2%) from beyond the arc.
If we look at the Celtics' perimeter defense, TeamRankings has them 25th in 3-pointers allowed (37.5 per game) and 26th in opponent 3-point field goals (13.8 per game).
This is who the Celtics are as a team. They're playing the numbers, knowing they're more likely to attempt more 3-pointers than their opponent on most nights.
Although Boston is off to a 17-5 start, it's only 9-11-2 against the spread. I suspect Boston's perimeter defense can be at fault for allowing opposing teams to stay within the point spread.
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Picks, Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 226.5 -110 / -110 | +330 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 226.5 -110/-110 | -420 |
The line movement for this game has been fascinating because we saw it touch 11 points before careening down to 8.5. Thus, it's likely some respected money stepped in to back the underdog Cavaliers.
After running the numbers, my blended models seem to align with the market, as I have Cleveland anywhere from an 8- to 8.5-point underdog with LeVert back on the bench.
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Consequently, not being able to grab Cleveland as a double-digit dog is certainly a missed opportunity.
However, what intrigues me about this matchup is the familiarity Cleveland will have after facing Boston a few nights ago. This feels like a game you'd want to have the points in your back pocket.
Despite missing the best of the number, I recommend taking an alternate spread with the Cavaliers at +9.5, which is slightly juiced to -120 at FanDuel. Cleveland has covered the spread in its last three visits to TD Garden and won six of the last 10 meetings in this series.
I'll take my chances with the Cavaliers keeping this game within single digits.
