Cavaliers vs. Bucks Prediction, Picks for Wednesday, Jan. 24
Here's everything you need to know about Cavaliers vs. Bucks on Wednesday, Jan. 24 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
Will the Bucks look better in wake of their head coach's firing or will the Cavaliers blow Milwaukee out by 40 points again like they did one week ago?
Let's get to our Cavaliers vs. Bucks prediction and pick.
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Prediction
Pick: Over 236 Points
Cavaliers Betting Outlook
The Cavaliers have been the most prolific 3-point shooting team in the NBA since losing starters Darius Garland (fractured jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee surgery) to injury in mid-December. They rank second in the NBA in 3-point attempt rate and 14th in 3-point percentage since Christmas.
Cleveland has surrounded Donovan Mitchell with space and it has worked amazingly over the past five weeks. Their shot quality and the contributions from players like Georges Niang and Sam Merrill off the bench have been impressive. Merrill has scored 26 and 18 points in his last two games, shooting 13-for-27 (48%) from beyond the arc.
Defensively, Jarrett Allen has been solid protecting the rim , averaging more than two blocks a game this month, but he will likely have to guard Brook Lopez on the perimeter. Even if he matches up with Giannis Antetokounmpo he will be at a significant speed disadvantage and will likely struggle to keep the ball in front of him.
The Cavs have been elite on defense despite missing Mobley over the past four weeks, but they are slightly overrated and playing above their true level. They’ve played some weak competition as of late and that has definitely boosted their overall defensive rating.
Allen, who is averaging 14.8 and 10.2 rebounds per game this season, is a good player but there is a high probability he gets in foul trouble playing against Antetokounmpo. And outside of Allen, the Cavaliers are pretty devoid of competent bigs following the suspension of backup center Tristan Thompson.
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Bucks Betting Outlook
The big storyline for this game will be about how the Bucks respond to Tuesday's stunning firing of Adrian Griffin. Reports coming out of Milwaukee claim there was a disconnect between Griffin and most of his major players, so if anything this should result in a slight bump in performance and effort. In any transfer of power, there usually is.
The Bucks overall record is 30-13, but they haven’t been particularly impressive overall as they are just 16-27 against the spread on the season. They are coming off consecutive wins against the lowly Pistons, but they struggled in each game, especially on the defensive end.
There should be plenty of motivation tonight against the Cavs, who blew them out by 40 points a week ago in Cleveland. The Bucks played that one without Giannis, but no team lose to this version of the Cavaliers by that much under any circumstance.
Expect Antetokounmpo to be a major factor in this rematch as the Cavs don’t have anyone who can match up with him.
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Cavaliers vs. Bucks Picks, Odds
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 237 -108 / -112 | +215 |
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 237 -108 / -112 | -265 |
This is a great spot to bet the over as the Cavs will be launching 3s all game like they usually do. In their matchup against Milwaukee last week, Mitchell (31 points) was 4-of-8 from beyond the arc and Niang (33 points) was 5-of-6.
But the problem with their high 3-point attempt rate is that it puts their transition defense in jeopardy because long 3s lead to long rebounds, which usually leads to fastbreaks. And the Bucks with Antetokounmpo in the lineup are not the team you want to constantly be defending in transition.
The Cavs don’t match up well with Giannis to begin with, so expect the Bucks to dominate in the halfcourt as well.
The Cavs have been solid so I’d rather play the over than fade them on the spread given their elite shot profile and how poor the Bucks' defense has been for most of the season.
Pick: Over 237 Points | Play to 238
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