Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Prediction, Picks for Sunday, Jan. 28
Here's everything you need to know about Bulls vs. Trail Blazers on Sunday, Jan. 28 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today. Betting this game? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook in Illinois or any other state where it operates.
The Portland Trailblazers host the Chicago Bulls to round out Sunday's NBA slate. While eyes may be mostly on the NFL, or even a higher profile NBA game, it’s these types of under-the-radar matchups where you can often find the most value as a bettor.
The Bulls will be without former All-Star guard Zach Lavine (ankle) and big man Patrick Williams (foot), while the Blazers have an injury report almost as long as their roster. Jabari Walker (knee), Scoot Henderson (quadriceps), Anfernee Simons (rib), Jerami Grant (back) and Malcolm Brogdon (knee) are all questionable. And Shaedon Sharpe (thigh) is out until at least the end of the month, per ESPN.
Let's get to our Bulls vs. Trail Blazers prediction and pick.
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Prediction
Pick: Bulls -6.5
Bulls Betting Outlook
After starting the season a horrendous 5-14 straight up and against the spread, the Bulls have put together a decent stretch since the end of November. Starting on Nov. 30, Chicago quietly ranks ninth in Defensive Rating and 11th in Net Rating — ahead of the Suns, Mavericks, Kings, Pacers, Rockets, Heat and Magic in both categories — according to NBA Advanced Stats. The Bulls are also an impressive 16-11 SU and 18-9 ATS thanks to their defensive improvement.
So what changed on Nov. 30? Lavine went down with a foot injury and missed the entire month of December. Despite his prowess as almost a 20-point-per-game scorer, surprisingly, his on/off numbers don’t reflect as much of a negative impact on team defense as they do on offense. His iso-heavy game leaves the rest of the team out of rhythm and without a natural offensive flow, which shows up in the advanced numbers. According to Basketball Reference, the Bulls are 5.7 points better on offense and 1.9 points better on defense when Lavine doesn’t play. They’re also 11-10 SU and 14-7 ATS in games without Lavine.
Trail Blazers Betting Outlook
For the Blazers, that player is Grant. He’s responsible for +3.2 points per 100 possession to opposing offenses, but -3.4 to his own offense, meaning he’s responsible for a -6.6-point swing for the Blazers. Meanwhile, Brogdon is the single most important player for the Blazers from an on/off perspective, which is a big reason why he’s been in so many trade rumors with teams trying to make a deep playoff run. His presence is crucial to the Blazers offense as he's one of the few above-average playmakers on the roster. With Brogdon, the Blazers are +8.8 points on offense and opponents score -2.1 points per 100 possessions — a +10.9-point swing.
Monitor both Grant and Brogdon’s status before gametime.
I honestly can’t tell if all these Blazers players are actually injured, but by the looks of the sheer volume of names on the report, I’d say we’ve reached the tanking portion of the season for Portland. Brogdon will definitely be moved at the deadline and with him listed as questionable, I lean toward him not playing to preserve his trade value.
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Picks, Odds
| Bulls Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 216.5 -110/-110 | -275 |
| Trail Blazers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 216.5 -110/-110 | +220 |
The Bulls have dominated this matchup over the past few seasons. They’re 3-0 SU and ATS against the Blazers in their past three meetings and I don’t see that changing Sunday night. However, with the injury report filled to the brim, you may want to wait until closer to game time before taking the Bulls. Chicago is coming off a long road trip and I suspect the Bulls mays rest some folks that aren’t currently on the injury report.
The Blazers are coming off a road trip themselves and this will be their first home game after four games on the road, making it a particularly bad spot for Portland as home 'dogs of three or more are 10-18-3 ATS this season.
The Bulls have also beat up on bad teams this season. They’re 8-1-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning percentage under 40%. Assuming some combination of Alex Caruso, Demar Derozan and Nikola Vucevic play (in that order of importance), I like the Bulls. With everyone in for Chicago, I like them down to -8.5, regardless of who plays for Portland.
