Bucks vs. Suns Prediction, Picks for Tuesday, Feb. 6
Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Suns on Tuesday, Feb. 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Milwaukee Bucks will look to bounce back after a brutal collapse to the Utah Jazz as they head to Phoenix to take on the surging Suns. Who will take this epic showdown between two title hopefuls?
Let's get to our Bucks vs. Suns prediction and pick.
Bucks vs. Suns Prediction
Pick: Under 244.5
Bucks Betting Outlook
The Bucks have a lengthy injury report for this contest with Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee — probable), Damian Lillard (ankle — questionable), Khris Middleton (knee — probable), Brook Lopez (personal — questionable) and Andre Jackson Jr. (wrist — probable) all on the report.
Milwaukee has been dynamic offensively this season with the fourth-best Adjusted Offensive Rating (119.4) in the league, per Dunks and Threes. The Bucks have played fast as well, with the third-fastest Pace (102.46), per NBA Advanced Stats.
While it's a bit early, there have been some changes under Doc Rivers. The Bucks' Pace has dropped to 100.88 in the four games Rivers has coached. They played faster against the Mavericks and Jazz, but the Nuggets and the Blazers bogged them down. They're susceptible to playing at their opponent's Pace. Now they'll take on the Suns, who play at the 20th-ranked Pace in the league (98.74). Phoenix could dictate the tempo of this game.
One of the problems for Milwaukee is it has been torched from the midrange and the perimeter — two areas where Phoenix excels. The one difference is that the Bucks' process has been a bit better lately and they've been without one of their best defensive players in Lopez during the last two games. Having Lopez and Jae Crowder share the floor will be helpful moving forward.
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Suns Betting Outlook
The Suns come into this game healthy with their Big 3 intact. Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant have thrived when playing alongside each other. Not only is the offense incredible — the trio is scoring 131.5 points per 100 possessions — but the defense is above average as well, allowing 114.6 points per 100, per Cleaning the Glass.
This matchup sets up well for Phoenix. The Suns can match up well with the Bucks, and Booker should find success against what has been a soft Milwaukee backcourt.
That being said, those possessions will likely take place in the half court. The Suns play in the half court on 81% of plays, tied for the second-highest frequency in the league. The Suns go through their progressions, so even though the Bucks have the shortest defensive possession length, the uptick in Pace they traditionally give opponents is mitigated by the Suns' offensive preferences.
Bucks vs. Suns Prediction, Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 243.5 -110o / -110u | +136 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 243.5 -110o / -110u | -162 |
While I lean the Suns in this matchup, I think the best play is on the total. The Bucks have a number of players listed on the injury report, and if any of Lillard, Antetokounmpo or Middleton sit, it would have a negative impact on the team's offense.
For the Suns, they should be able to score effectively; however, given their slow pace of play and preference to play in the half court, there should be fewer possessions across the board. These teams are both 7-3 to the Under over their last 10 games and I expect points to be at a premium.
Pick: Under 244.5
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