Bucks vs. Rockets Prediction, Picks for Saturday, Jan. 6
Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Rockets on Saturday, Jan. 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Houston Rockets wrap up a seven-game homestand with a visit from the Milwaukee Bucks. This is the second meeting between the two teams; Milwaukee won the earlier encounter 128-119. At 25-10, The Bucks have rarely been second-best to anyone this season. Milwaukee trails Boston for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference by 2.5 games.
As for the Rockets, they're coming off a 122-95 blowout loss to the Timberwolves, snapping a two-game winning streak. You see, it's all about that first loss. I'll expand on that and advise why the Bucks are a terrible matchup for a Rockets team looking to get back in the win column.
Let's get to our Bucks vs. Rockets prediction and pick.
Bucks vs. Rockets Prediction
Pick: Bucks ALT spread -5.5 (-125)
Bucks Betting Outlook
The Bucks enter this game after outlasting the Spurs in a 125-121 victory. It was a game with almost everything, including a fourth quarter where no team had a lead greater than four points for 12 minutes.
It was also the third straight game the Bucks didn't cover the spread. However, this isn't the time to avoid backing the Bucks.
Milwaukee's getting plenty of attention for its offense because of the Damian Lillard trade. Per TeamRankings, it jumped from eighth to third in efficiency, scoring 117.5 points per 100 possessions.
One of the Bucks' recent successes against the Rockets involves getting them to play the game at their pace.
The Bucks rank second with an Effective Field Goal rate of 58%, meaning the more scoring opportunities they get, the more dangerous they can be.
Houston ranks 21st in Pace, averaging 102.1 possessions per game. In contrast, Milwaukee ranks third in this category (averages 106.2 possessions).
In this head-to-head series, five of the past six meetings flew over the total. That quicker pace suggests that those were more suited to the Bucks' playing style.
Thus, this is an excellent spot to back the Bucks because you're laying a shorter number here with the Rockets as the home team.
Rockets Betting Outlook
With new head coach Ime Udoka and some key free-agent acquisitions, the Rockets are posting quite a turnaround. The Rockets finished 14th in the conference last season and now they are one game above .500 at 17-16.
Their most significant improvement has been on the defensive end of the floor. The Rockets went from 29th in efficiency last season, allowing 115.1 points per 100 possessions, to third this season giving up 107.6 points per 100 possessions.
What's interesting is that I don't think the Rockets necessarily have great defensive players. Instead, it's the defensive mindset they adopted that mirrors their head coaches' philosophies.
As for the offense, it will take a bit longer to come around, and perhaps some better players. Nonetheless, the Rockets still are improved in offensive efficiency from 27th to 20th. However, if asked to match the pace of the Bucks, the Rockets' offense will likely struggle to keep up.
Bucks vs. Rockets Picks, Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 237.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 237.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
One of the most significant leaps this season has been the improvement of Rockets' center Alperen Sengun. Last season, Sengun averaged 14.8 points. This season, he leads the team with 21.5 points per game.
I get the sense the Rockets look to Sengun as their leader, but he's still only in his third season.
Sometimes, it helps when your best player is also an alpha dog because they're the ones who need to set the tempo and get a reaction out of the other players. I haven't seen that with Houston in this campaign.
For example, Houston has never had a loss this season and avoided a losing streak. On five occasions, the Rockets followed an initial loss with a three-game losing streak.
The Rockets have yet to be able to stop the bleeding on their first try, and I think that comes down to a leadership element that has to come from the players and not the coach.
Our Action Labs database shows that if you look at the Rockets' past seven seasons with a streak of one loss, opposing teams are 50-32-4 for 15.09 units.
This is an angle I'll be paying attention to for the duration of the season.
I see this line as high as -7 at some sportsbooks, so I'll play an alternate spread of -5.5 (-125 at BetRivers).
Pick: Bucks ALT spread -5.5 (-125)
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