Bucks vs. Nuggets Prediction, Pick Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. Nuggets on Monday, Jan. 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets have each won four out of their last five games and will clash in Denver on Monday night in what should be a highly entertaining affair.
With Denver's defensive production slipping a bit in recent weeks, might we see both offenses dominate?
Let's get to our Bucks vs. Nuggets prediction and pick.
Bucks vs. Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Over 238 (-110)
Bucks Betting Outlook
The Bucks have had fleeting performances on the defensive end lately, which is a continuation of what we've seen throughout season. The offense will drive the ship — and in the last 10 games, it's done just that to the tune of a 120.6 efficiency rating. That mark is nearly identical to Milwaukee's season-long number, which ranks second-best in the NBA.
A scary sight for opponents is the Bucks' revitalized 3-point shooting. Milwaukee has shot nearly 40% from 3 during the last 10 games — an improvement from what was already close to a top-10 number over the course of the season.
The Bucks are already the best team in the league at scoring at the rim, and their two-pronged attack has made them a nightmare for any defense. But the thought of them rising to the upper-echelon of the league from outside is daunting.
Adding to the pain is the fact that even on the road, this team's production from outside has dropped off only marginally, by less than one percentage point.
The Bucks can be exploited on the defensive end, where they're a firmly below-average team, and in the last 10 games their numbers have only gotten worse. They own the sixth-best 3-point defense, but over the last month of play they're just 22nd in that regard. That makes life difficult given that Milwaukee has left a lot to be desired inside the arc.
Nuggets Betting Outlook
In a similar vein, the Nuggets have gone from pedestrian to poor on the defensive end over the last few weeks. A team that was above average in all shooting zones has now fallen into the bottom half of the league everywhere on the floor in the month of January. In particular, Denver does a poor job at stopping opponents from scoring at the rim, where Denver allows 68.6% of shots to fall.
The Nuggets offense ranks 13th in efficiency over the last 10 games. Moreover, this month Denver has begun to come back down to Earth from 3, hitting just 37.4% of looks per Cleaning the Glass. It will be interesting to see if the Nuggets' struggles continue against a Bucks team that has really struggled to defending the perimeter lately, particularly given Denver is shooting nearly four points better from outside at home this season.
The line offered by oddsmakers makes matters a little tricky. We're being asked to lay four points with Denver, a team that is 11-10-1 against the spread at home this season — entering as the favorite in all 22 of those games. The Nuggets come in with a solid average margin of victory of 9.8 points per game, but they beat the spread by just 1.5 points on average.
Bucks vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 238.5 -110 / -110 | +142 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 238.5 -110 / -110 | -170 |
I really like the Nuggets to win this game. But given the even nature of this matchup, laying four points may be a lot to ask here.
Denver should be able to exploit the Bucks' 3-point defense, but on the flip side Milwaukee should really enjoy this matchup given the home team's cratering rim defense.
We know the Bucks love to run up and down the floor, ranking third in Pace and maintaining that ranking over the last 10 games.
The trends don't exactly paint the over in a positive light, considering Denver has been a machine at cashing the under all year and given the Bucks hit the under in both games they played as the underdog.
Nevertheless, I think perhaps the season-long trends — as well as Denver's decent defensive showing in 2023-24 — offer us a discount on the total here.
With a clear way in for both offense against two slumping defenses, I think the way to play this one is the over. I do have some interest in the Nuggets to win the game, but I'd really only play the moneyline to -150.
