After a solid six-game stretch that included five home games, Alperen Sengun has cooled off in back-to-back contests. He now travels to South Beach to take on the Miami Heat, and I’m eyeing him going under his points total in a tough spot.
Sengun is averaging 21.4 points per game this season, and we are getting a slightly raised line, likely due to his recent performances. However, I always weigh the matchup, which doesn't suit his strengths, over the hit rate.
Against the Heat, the Rockets' big man will face Bam Adebayo, whose versatility and physical toughness on post-ups is the perfect defensive force to limit opposing big men. In fact, Adebayo ranks in the 95th percentile in defensive Estimated Plus-Minus.
In their past three matchups, Adebayo held Sengun to an average of 12.3 points per game.
Sengun collects 43% of his points when he can abuse the pick and roll as a roller and get to the line. Matching up against a Heat squad that ranks as the 13th-best against the pick and roll (Adebayo missed 10 games) and allows the fourth-fewest free throws, Sengun may be in for a tough night.
This game will be a sluggish and low-scoring duel between two of the bottom-five paced teams in the NBA. It won't be easy for Sengun to get enough quality looks to go over his prop.
Bet Sengun to go Under 22.5 points.
