76ers vs. Warriors Picks, Prediction for Tonight
Here's everything you need to know about 76ers vs. Warriors on Tuesday, Jan. 30 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Philadelphia 76ers head to the Bay Area to take on the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night. The Sixers are in the midst of a Western Conference road trip and will be playing their second game in as many days.
Can the Warriors defend home court after a brutal double overtime loss to the Lakers or will they continue to fall down the standings?
Let's get to our 76ers vs. Warriors prediction and pick.
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76ers vs. Warriors Prediction
Pick: 76ers +3.5
76ers Betting Outlook
The 76ers played Monday night without Joel Embiid (knee) and Tyrese Maxey (ankle), who both missed the previous game in Denver as well. Their status is obviously critical for capping this game against the Warriors. If they are unable to play, Tobias Harris, Kelly Oubre, Patrick Beverley and Paul Reed will get as much work as they can handle.
If Embiid plays, he is going to dominate in this matchup. In the two matchups last season, he scored 46 and 34 points. The Warriors have been extremely susceptible to the center position this season, with Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Alperen Şengün all eclipsing 30 points against them.
The 76ers have been dynamic when Embiid and Maxey have shared the floor. Those lineups are +10.3 in point differential with a 124.3 offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass.
Their two-man game has improved as the season has progressed. Maxey has become a better passer and now is starting to feed Embiid more effectively in the pick-and-roll. The passes are becoming seamless and the transition from pass to shot is quicker and better placed.
Draymond Green is one of the best and most cerebral defensive players in the league, but given Embiid's size advantage, this will be a tough play for him to stop.
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Warriors Betting Outlook
The Warriors continue to struggle this season. They are just 19-24 and sit in 12th place in the Western Conference. They have been slightly better than their record with the 16th-ranked Adjusted Net Rating (+0.3), per Dunks and Threes, but this is a far cry from their lofty pre-season expectations.
The Warriors simply have been unable to string any stretch of success together and have struggled against the league's best teams. When the Warriors have played top-10 teams in point differential, they have a -5.0 net rating and are an abysmal 3-16 straight-up. Based on their efficiency, they should have won 3.8 more games, per Cleaning the Glass. They've struggled to close out close games and simply are not as good as they have been in years past.
Coach Steve Kerr has been experimenting with lineups recently, as he should. While Stephen Curry has a negative point differential (-3.8), it's evident that is not his fault, but playing minutes with Klay Thompson (-6.3), Kevon Looney (-9.0) and Andrew Wiggins (-13.2) has not helped.
The Warriors started Jonathan Kuminga in the double overtime loss to the Lakers on Saturday, and overall he's been a solid contributor of late. The most recent starting lineup of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Kuminga and Green has a +10.6 point differential in 142 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. While that's a positive, the viability of that lineup against the 76ers and Joel Embiid is questionable.
76ers vs. Warriors Picks, Odds
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | +136 |
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 236.5 -110 / -110 | -162 |
These teams are on dramatically different trajectories at this point in the season. The Warriors are grasping at straws, clinging to postseason hopes, while the 76ers are cruising along near the top of the Eastern Conference.
While Embiid and Maxey have been dealing with injuries, it has given both a bit of extra rest on a road trip.
The Sixers are the better team, and with no one to stop Embiid, it's tough to look away from Philadelphia in this spot if he plays. However, with the Sixers currently listed as 3.5 point underdogs, the market seems to be pricing in his and Maxey’s potential unavailability. We just saw this undermanned Sixers team push the Nuggets to the brink in Denver but then get their doors blown off by the Blazers.
The problem is that the Warriors are not a team to trust. They are just 7-17-1 against the spread as a favorite this season and have struggled to consistently perform. The Sixers have enough depth to keep this close.
I’ll grab the points with them on the road. If neither Embiid or Maxey play, we'll root for the depth. But if they do play, this should swing the line significantly.
Pick: 76ers +3.5 (-110)
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