76ers vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks for Saturday, Jan. 27
Here's everything you need to know about 76ers vs. Nuggets on Saturday, Jan. 27 — our expert 76ers vs Nuggets prediction and betting picks for today.
Joel Embiid vs. Nikola Jokic was certainly intriguing, but Embiid (left knee soreness) was a late scratch for this game.
Additionally, both Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are out for the 76ers, which has the odds on the move.
Now, for the analysis you came for.
76ers vs. Nuggets Prediction
Pick: Nuggets -4.5
(Editor's note: The best number for this game is now Denver -6 at BetRivers, with most books at Nuggets -6.5 and some even all the way to Nuggets -7. You can probably still consider this bet at -6, but anything longer than that is a pass.)
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -108 | 225.5 -109o / -112u | +195 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -113 | 225.5 -109o / -112u | -240 |
76ers Betting Outlook
Sixers Betting Outlook
Joel Embiid had 73 on Monday against the Spurs, then the 76ers got stomped by the Pacers on Thursday, ending a six-game winning streak. The Sixers are 29-14 and third in the Eastern Conference, though their game against the Nuggets marks the second of a five-game road trip, of which they're already 0-1.
As their regular season metrics would indicate, the Sixers shape up quite favorably, even on the road, so far this season relative to many of their peers.
The Sixers are 11-9 against the spread on the road, which is 10th in the NBA for the 4.5-point underdogs. They haven't been a road dog many times this season, but the record drops to 3-4 ATS when not favored away from Philly, only eight NBA teams are worse.
Of note, they're 16-10 ATS when having equal rest to their opponent, which is third in the NBA. The Nuggets last played on Thursday — more on that shortly.
Philly is also 8-5 ATS after a loss, tied for the eighth-best record in the NBA.
On the over/under front, the Sixers have hit the highest percentage of overs this season, doing so in 62.8% of games.
As a road dog, Philly is still over more than anyone outside of the Lakers and Timberwolves, going over in 5-of-7 games.
Injuries? Sure.
Tyrese Maxey (ankle sprain), Tobias Harris (illness) and Mo Bamba (knee) are all questionable. The Sixers will be without De'Anthony Melton (back) and Robert Covington (knee).
Nuggets Betting Outlook
Nuggets Betting Outlook
The Nuggets are NBA title favorites, or at least Western Conference Championship favorites, but they haven't been great ATS this season comparatively.
The Nuggets, who are 31-15 and third in the west, won three straight before being blindsided by the New York Knicks on Thursday, getting embarrassed 122-84 at Madison Square Garden.
After a loss, Denver is 8-6 against the spread — 12th-best league wide — and they have had three losing streaks of two or more games — though all were streaks that began with back-to-back road losses. The Nuggets' only three-game losing streak was bookended by a home loss to the Houston Rockets on December 8.
As a home favorite, Denver is 11-9-1 ATS – 13th in the NBA – 12th among teams who've played at least seven or more home games. The Nuggets are also 15-13 ATS on equal rest, 14th in the NBA. So ATS, they're just above the middle of the road this season, not at all overwhelming teams to this point, though they still have the league's eighth-best net rating at +4.2 as of this writing — the Sixers are third, largely because they whoop bad teams at home.
So remember when I said Philly has hit the most overs in the league? You'll never guess who has hit the most unders… that's right, the Nuggets, under in a league low 28 of 46 contests — the only team that's gone over in less than 40% of games. As a home favorite, they've gone over in 9-of-21 games, putting them at about 43% over, better than just four teams. And with equal rest, they've gone over in 11-of-29 games. Only the Rockets, Magic and Clippers have more unders on equal rest.
On the injury front, Denver will have Jokic, who was probably with an eye injury. Jamal Murray (shin), Aaron Gordon (shoulder) and Reggie Jackson (toe) are also probable and expected to suit up. Rookie wing Julian Strawther (knee) is out.
76ers vs. Nuggets Picks, Odds
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -108 | 223.5 -109o / -112u | +540 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -113 | 223.5 -109o / -112u | -770 |
The Nuggets have been smacked four times this year. They lost 110-89 to the Minnesota Timberwolves on November 1, then covered the -6.5 against the Dallas Mavericks two days later. The Houston Rockets beat them down 105-86 on November 24 and covered a -11.5 spread against the San Antonio Spurs two days later.
The Oklahoma City Thunder clapped them on December 29 on the second of a back-to-back 119-93 and two days later, they covered against the Charlotte Hornets, a spread of -16.5, winning by 18. The first two combinations of games began with a road loss and followed with a home win. I'm rolling with that trend and with the Nuggets in a much needed bounce back spot against the Sixers after their 38-point loss to the Knicks. Give me Denver at -4.5.
