Kings vs. Heat Odds & Betting Predictions - November 5, 2024

Kings at Heat

1:15 am • NBCS-CA

Sacramento Kings

7-5

111

111 - 110

Miami Heat

4-6

110

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Kings 7-5	+3	+1.5-112	o225-108	+103
Heat 4-6	u224	-1.5-115	u225-110	-125

Tuesday 1:15 a.m.

November 05, 2024

Kaseya CenterMiami

B.Adebayo o25.5 Pts+Rebs-110

1.1u

Bam has started the season slow, but is coming off his best game after coach Spoelstra commented that they needed to get Bam more involved. We definitely saw that he was a big part of the gameplan as his volume increased tremendously attempting 24 shots (was previously averaging 12) and scoring 32 points Great his vs Sabonis going over this line in 5/L5 against him with an average of 32.4 PR Kings are allowing the 9th most rebounds to opposing Centers and an average of 22 PPG to opposing center Other Centers/Bigs with good games against the Kings: Ayton 20 pts 11 rebs (31 PR) Hachimura 18pts 9 rebs (27 PR) Davis 31 Pts 9 reb (40 PR) Randle 33 pts 5 reb (38 PR) Kings have allowed every opposing Center to grab 8+ Rebs against them: Poltl 9 rebs Gobert 11 rebs Ayton 11 rebs Hachimura 9 rebs Davis 9 rebs Capela 10 rebs I think it is very possible Bam clears this line on points alone, so I like his points line too, but the Kings are allowing tons of rebounds to opposing centers and I think we get good value on the PR line with the amount of rebound chances he will get tonight

D.Sabonis o35.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-120

0.83u

SAC -110

1.5u

K.Murray o2.5 3pt M+140

0.75u

B.Adebayo o29.5 Pts+Rebs+Ast-108

K.Murray o14.5 Pts+Ast-130

0.77u

Fliff

K.Murray o13.5 Pts-105

0.95u

The Kings face off against the Miami Heat and this is a matchup that Keegan Murray has thrived in. He has played four games against Miami in his career and has scored 22, 7, 33, and 28 points. He has dominated this matchup. Much of this has to do with the way Miami plays defense and they allow their opponents to get up a ton of 3s, especially from the corner where they have the fourth-highest frequency allowed, per Cleaning the Glass. Murray has seen a spike in his 3 point shooting this season, particularly from the corner where he is shooting 40% this season. I prefer the points to the 3s prop here though because he has also seen a spike in his rebounding, which can lead to a couple extra second chance opportunities against a Miami team that is in the bottom third in rebounding percentage. Murray has hit this in 5/6 games and I expect him to make it 6/7.

SAC +110

0.3u

Featured Insight
The Kings allowed 10.9 second chance points per game last season -- best in the NBA; the Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game last season -- 3rd-lowest in the NBA.

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Featured Insight
The Heat were 17-2 (.895) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season -- 10th-best in the NBA; the Kings allowed opponents to shoot 48% last season -- 10th-worst in the NBA.

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NBA Public Betting

Heat are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Heat are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Heat are 4-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Heat' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Heat' 4 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	4-6	0-4	4-2	2-4	2-2
Kings	6-5-1	2-2-1	4-3	5-3-1	1-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Heat	5-5	2-2	3-3	2-4	3-1
Kings	6-6	2-3	4-3	4-5	2-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Heat	4-6	N/A	N/A	3-3	1-3
Kings	7-5	N/A	N/A	6-3	1-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Nov 3rd	@WAS	W 118-98	-10 W	U 224	MIA -479
Oct 30th	NYK	L 107-116	+2 L	O 214.5	NYK +105
Oct 28th	DET	W 106-98	-8.5 L	U 219.5	MIA -350
Oct 26th	@CHA	W 114-106	-6 W	U 223	MIA -242
Oct 23rd	ORL	L 97-116	-2 L	O 208	ORL -130