Twins vs. Mariners Odds & Betting Predictions - July 20, 2023

Twins at Mariners

1:40 am • ROOT Sports NW

Minnesota Twins

9-12

6 - 3

Seattle Mariners

7-17

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Castillo			3.34	14-9
K.Maeda			4.23	6-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 9-12	+1.5-167	o7.5-120	+125
Mariners 7-17	-1.5+137	u7.5-120	-150

Thursday 1:40 a.m.

July 20, 2023

T-Mobile ParkSeattle

K.Maeda o5.5 Ks-112

An incredibly K friendly lineup - 6 guys who K at 23% or higher vs righties. And looking at the three who don’t (Crawford, France and Wong), Maeda has K’ed the trio in 7 of 17 plate appearances. Maeda has been solid since coming back from injury - 27 Ks in 20 IP and over this line in 3/4 (miss was vs ATL). Over that span (which I acknowledge is a very small sample), Maeda is 7th in swinging strike % (out of 82 qualifiers) - I like that vs a SEA team that has the 7th highest swinging strike rate over the L30 days.

Under 7.5-120

MIN +144 (F5)

0.72u

Bet to +128

MIN +145

0.73u

Bet to +130

Over 7-120

0.5u

To 7.5 (-108)

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The Mariners are 11-1 (.917) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .786.

Teoscar Hernandez has struck out in 30% of PA's since last season -- third highest in MLB-- second Percentile. Jhoan Duran has a strikeout rate of 33% since last season -- tied for 14th highest among qualified RPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Carlos Correa is batting just .154 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season -- fourth worst in MLB-- second Percentile. 90% of Luis Castillo fastballs are 95+ MPH this season -- seventh highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Twins	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mariners	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Twins	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mariners	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Twins	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 19th	MIN	L 3-10	-1.5 L	O 7	MIN -125
Jul 18th	MIN	W 7-6	-1.5 L	O 7.5	SEA -150
Jul 16th	DET	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 8	SEA -172
Jul 16th	DET	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 7.5	DET -205
Jul 15th	DET	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 7	DET -185

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Maeda, P	80	6.1	9	2
RG.Jax, P	15	0.2	1	1
RE.Pagan, P	11	1	2	0
RJ.Duran, P	20	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Correa, SS	0-5	0	0	0
2E.Julien, 2B	2-2	1	1	1
2M.Taylor, PR	0-0	1	0	0
2M.Taylor, CF	0-0	1	0	0
3A.Kirilloff, 1B	1-5	1	1	2
4M.Kepler, RF	2-5	2	1	1
5M.Wallner, DH	0-4	1	0	0
6W.Castro, CF	2-5	0	0	0
6W.Castro, 3B	2-5	0	0	0
6W.Castro, LF	2-5	0	0	0
7K.Farmer, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
7K.Farmer, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7K.Farmer, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
8J.Gallo, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8D.Solano, PH	0-0	0	0	0
8D.Solano, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
9R.Jeffers, C	1-3	0	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Castillo, P	104	6	11	3
RJ.Topa, P	17	0.2	1	0
LG.Speier, P	8	0.1	1	0
RA.Munoz, P	27	1	1	1
RD.Sweet, P	20	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Crawford, SS	2-4	0	0	0
2J.Rodriguez, CF	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Kelenic, LF	1-4	1	0	0
4E.Suarez, 3B	1-4	1	1	2
5M.Ford, DH	0-4	0	0	0
6T.Hernandez, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7T.France, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
8T.Murphy, C	1-3	1	1	1
9K. Wong, 2B	0-3	0	0	0