Tigers vs. Angels Odds & Betting Predictions - July 19, 2026

#tailing @The_Oddsmaker

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After facing potential future HOF’er (in my eyes) Troy Melton last night (who hit every rung on the ladder!!), the Angels now have to face actual future HOF’er Tarik Skubal. Skubal missed some time with an elbow injury, but he’s actually been even better since returning. Before the injury he owned a 29.6% adjusted K rate (the metric I created that estimates what a pitcher’s K rate would be against a league-average lineup in a league-average park, removing the external factors that can inflate or suppress strikeouts). Since returning, that number has jumped to 33.5%. Just like Melton last night, this is obviously a great matchup against an Angels lineup that strikes out at a high rate. But the bigger edge is the lineup construction. I’m expecting the Angels to stack the lineup with around 8 right-handed hitters. Skubal has reverse platoon splits and has actually struck out righties at about a 6% higher rate over his career. One of the sneaky reasons he’s so dominant is that teams have no choice but to stack righties against him anyway, yet 74% of the hitters he’s has faced this season have been right-handed. Tonight that number could be closer to 90-100%. I’m projecting him closer to 9.5 strikeouts and around -165 to clear 8.5 Ks. I’m also taking 10+ at +200, which is the sweet spot from an EV standpoint. There are still a couple more rungs worth sprinkling, but the value tapers off a bit faster than it did with Melton last night.