Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, July 18.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- White Sox/Blue Jays F5 Over 4.5 (-120), 1u | Bet to -140
- Cardinals/Diamondbacks Under 9 (-108), 0.54u | Bet through 9
- Max Meyer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120), 0.6u | Bet to -140
- Shane Drohan Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122), 0.61u | Bet to -140
- Nationals/Athletics Over 10.5 (-110), 1.1u | Bet to 11
- Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+107), 0.5u | Bet to -120
White Sox @ Blue Jays Picks
After a breakout first couple of months, things have taken a rough turn for Davis Martin since the calendar hit June, allowing 23 runs over his last 32.2 innings (seven starts). While he has allowed 20 of those runs in just three of his seven starts, he’s walked nine against just seven strikeouts the last three times he’s allowed two runs or less.
Martin is sporting just a 2.6 K-BB% during this stretch with a 41.7 HardHit%, producing a 6.03 xERA that nearly matches his actual results (6.34 ERA).
If Martin has veered off the path, Shane Bieber has yet to find it, allowing 15 runs over 17.2 innings this year with a 3.5 K-BB%, 9 Barrels and a 55.6 HardHit%. His 11.57 xERA is four runs worse than a 7.64 ERA.
He is coming off his best start in San Diego, in which his velocity spiked to 93 mph (0.9 mph above his previous high this season), he still allowed nine base runners (three walks 60 HardHit%) through 4.2 innings.
A healthy White Sox lineup averages a 116 wRC+ against RHP this year and I’m not even projecting Kyle Teel for a day game after a night one.
While not entirely healthy, the Blue Jays are about as healthy as they’ve been all season with their projected lineup averaging a 111 wRC+ against RHP.
We do have a pair of strong defenses in this game, combining for 13 OAA and 9 Runs Prevented, while projected lineups combine for 29 FRV (Fielding Run Value), but the Toronto bullpen has been a bottom third of the league unit over the last 30 days leading up to the break with a 4.56 FIP, 4.44 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA much worse than their 3.80 ERA. BARTOLO ranks them a top five pen on the season though.
The White Sox have the second best FIP (3.59) over the last month and have the sixth best relief corps numbers overall during that span (average of FIP, xFIP and SIERA), while BARTOLO sees them as an overall average unit.
Still, the starting pitchers should give up some runs to a pair of competent or better offenses.
Toronto is a neutral run environment with the roof closed and increases run production by an average 4% when the roof is open.
I’m projecting this total while projecting the roof closed for potential rain and air quality issues (both of which will be a theme for Saturday) and still have it going over, but see slightly more value in the F5 line.
Picks: F5 Over 4.5 (-120), 1u | Bet to -140
Cardinals @ Diamondbacks Picks
Let’s start with the run environment, which we know will be stable at 6% above average with the roof closed on Saturday (its on the Diamondbacks’ web site).
Brian Walsh is your scheduled umpire at a neutral -0.2% run reduction in games he’s called.
Now, we turn to a pair of pitchers who have both been better than ERAs exceeding four and a half (May 4.55, Pfaadt 4.70).
May has been a bit rough over the last month, though his 4.50 ERA doesn’t approach his 10.32 ERA over that stretch and his .302 xwOBA is still better than league average. On the season, he doesn’t have a single estimator reaching four, but I’ll weight the recent results more strongly and still rate him at 0.6 runs better than his actual results this season.
Pfaadt started three games, went to the pen, then the minors and has come back to start three more, allowing just three runs over 15.2 innings with a 32.7 HardHit%.
He’s mixed up his pitch usage, the largest change being increasing his fastball usage more than 10 percentage points to 36.7%, while utilizing five additional pitches between 8.4% and 17.7% of the time.
Pfaadt’s only struck out 10 of his last 60 batters, so I don’t know if the improvements will stick, but I still have his performance exactly half a run better than actual results.
That’s a pair of near league average pitchers.
We move on to a St Louis offense that I rate perfectly average based on their 107 wRC+ on the road and 97 wRC+ against RHP, along with the projected lineup’s 92 wRC+ over the last 30 days, 109 wRC+ against RHIP and 106 wRC+ on the road.
All of this leads us to an average run total, multiplied by a 6% increase so far.
Now, we get to the portions of this matchup that have me favoring the under.
The Diamondbacks have a 94 wRC+ at home and 83 wRC+ against RHP. Their projected lineup has an 82 wRC+ over the last month and an 86 wRC+ (140 ISO) both against RHIP and at home.
This is not a good lineup by any stretch of the imagination and could be even worse if Gabriel Moreno (140 wRC+ vs RHP, 157 wRC+ L30 days) does not play the day game after a night game. The above numbers are with him projected to start.
We also have two of the best defenses in the league here with both teams combining for 39 Runs Prevented and 50 OAA with projected lineups at 37 FRV (this decreases if Moreno doesn’t play though).
The St Louis bullpen has been atrocious, averaging the 6th worst estimators in the league over the last month and BARTOLO only ranks them as the 23rd best bullpen this season. However, the Arizona bullpen has the 3rd best estimators in the league over the same month long stretch and is ranked BARTOLO’s 8th bullpen.
Nine seems too aggressive here, despite the park.
Picks: Under 9 (-108), 0.54u | Bet through 9
Marlins @ Brewers Picks
American Family Field in Miliwaukee boosts strikeouts by 12% for LHBs and 5% for RHBs with the roof closed. With it open, those numbers increase to 15% and 10%.
With temperatures expected in the mid-80s and clear skies, the only reason they may close the roof is for air quality reasons. Either way, it’s a significant strikeout boost.
Scheduled umpire Derek Thomas also increases strikeouts by 4-5%.
Projecting Max Meyer to see 24 batters, should mean 14 from the left-hand side, considering Milwaukee’s standard lineup against RHP.
Meyer has struck out LHBs at a 29.1% rate this season and RHBs at just 21.9%. The standard Milwaukee lineup against RHIP averages a 22.3 K% against RHP this season through the first 24 batters.
Projecting Shane Drohan to see just 22 batters may mean up to 17 from the right-hand side with only Liam Hicks and Kyle Stowers currently projected from the left-hand side, though the Miami lineup has a bit more variance on a day to day basis.
Drohan would get the smaller park boost (projected at 7% to Meyer’s 9%), but does not drop off as much as Meyer between splits, striking out RHBs 23.6% and LHBs 21.5% respectively.
However, the first 22 batters through BARTOLO’s projected lineup average a 24.4 K% against LHP this season.
Milwaukee and Seattle have been a pair of parks where I’ve been playing strikeout props quite often since adjusting my projections to include park and weather effects, along with umpiring.
Seattle is a well known strikeout booster and still is mispriced often, but I don’t think the market is really clued into Milwaukee as much. Consider Drohan’s 26.3 K% at home and 18.9% on the road.
I’m playing both pitchers to exceed their strikeout props in strong spots here.
Picks: Max Meyer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120), 0.6u, Shane Drohan Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122), 0.61u | Bet both to -140
Nationals @ Athletics Picks
Batters from the left-hand side exceed a .385 wOBA and xwOBA against Zack Littell this year and are within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against J.T. Ginn.
Its not ideal to have Nick Kurtz unavailable in this game, but even without him, both lineups are projected to send more LHBs than RHBs to the plate against these pitchers and I still have the projected Athletics’ lineup averaging an even 100 wRC+ against RHP this year and 113 at home. Remember that wRC+ is supposedly a park neutral numbers, meaning it strips the 23% boost to run scoring that this park in Sacramento provides.
The Washington projected lineup averages a 106 wRC+ against RHP and has averaged a 120 wRC+ overall for the last month. This has been one of the better offenses in the league all year long.
Getting back to the starting pitchers, I have Ginn rated about three-quarters of a run better than Littell. BARTOLO has the gap around half a run, but we both still have each pitcher around four and a half or higher.
The Washington defense has been below average as a team, but the projected lineup has accumulated 6 FRV. However, the A’s have not only been one of the worst defensive teams (-22 Runs Prevented and -25 OAA are both 2nd worst in the majors), but their projected lineup totals -13 FRV, despite a few small sample sizes.
Lastly, both bullpens average estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are bottom third of the league over the last 30 days with the A’s being 2nd worst in the league once again, while BARTOLO also sees a pair of bottom third of the league bullpens for the season including Washington with he absolute worst relief unit.
Picks: Over 10.5 (-110), 1.1u | Bet to 11
Tigers @ Angels Picks
Tarik Skubal had struck out nine in three straight games before fanning just five of 21 Phillies last time out and he hadn’t faced more than 22 batters in any of those starts.
In fact, Skubal has faced a maximum of 25 batters just once this season, as the Tigers have not allowed him to throw more than 96 pitches in any start.
However, with a 15.5 SwStr% and 17.6 SwStr% since returning from the IL, including 21.5% in that last start against the Phillies, Skubal has still been racking up the Ks.
In fact, his 1.93 K/SwStr ratio suggests there’s upside to be seen with the league average rate for starting pitchers at 2.06.
Skubal has put down RHBs a bit more often than LHBs (30.3% to 28.9%) and while he also has a reverse split overall this year, the Angels are the last team I’d expect to take advantage of that and lack the quantity or quality of LHBs even if they did intend to do so.
They also strike out a ton. BARTOLO’s projected lineup averages a 25.6 K% through the first 22 spots, which is why I’m playing Skubal to hit his K prop, despite the low batter projection.
Facing the Angels could boost Skubal’s strikeout rate above 35% before we add on an additional near 20% for the park, umpire and weather.
This could be a monster spot for Skubal and perhaps his second double digit K outing of the season. (Note: I prefer 8.5 on DraftKings at +108 over 7.5 -178 on FanDuel).
Picks: Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+107), 0.5u | Bet to -120
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, July 18
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- White Sox/Blue Jays F5 Over 4.5 (-120), 1u | Bet to -140
- Cardinals/Diamondbacks Under 9 (-108), 0.54u | Bet through 9
- Max Meyer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120), 0.6u | Bet to -140
- Shane Drohan Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122), 0.61u | Bet to -140
- Nationals/Athletics Over 10.5 (-110), 1.1u | Bet to 11
- Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+107), 0.5u | Bet to -120
