Rockies vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - March 30, 2025

Bet to 8 (-110)

Personal

3.33% ev

5.01% ev

Not for the faint of heart but I’m testing out some ideas early in the season. Tampa Bay was a bottom-five offense last year in my opinion, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Have Feltner projected for 2.4 runs here so feels more like a coin flip. Again, feel free to skip this one if you’re disgusted by this bet but I’m just testing out the idea of targeting bad offenses.

Offense ice cold – Rockies hitting .200 with just 2.0 runs/game. Rays posted a weak .182 AVG in Game 1, managing only 1 run scored. Both teams combined: 3 total runs in last matchup, 0 HRs between them. Feltner vs Bradley last season = 1 ER over 12 IP. Lineups still finding rhythm early in season, lacking contact and plate discipline. Pitching edge both sides – Rockies starters hold 2.12 ERA, .200 BAA, 12 Ks in 2 games. Rays bullpen dominant: 1.50 ERA, 21 Ks, .292 BAA inflated by bloop hits. Feltner had 10 Ks, 2 H in 6 IP vs TB last year, showed elite command. Bradley .235 BAA in 2024, strong swing-and-miss profile. Both starters keep ball in park, reduce hard contact. Ballpark factor – George M. Steinbrenner Field playing slow early; wind projected light, no carry to the outfield. No lineup power surge: Misner only HR so far for either team through 2 games. McMahon hot but has no lineup protection. Rockies struck out 21 times in 2 games, highest in MLB so far. Contact quality low across the board, no barrels.

3.57% ev