Reds vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 16, 2026

Reds at Guardians

10:10 pm • CINR

Cincinnati Reds

Cleveland Guardians

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Cantillo			2.98	3-1
C.Paddack			7.63	0-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 24-21	+1.5	+1.5-158	o8.5-108	+127
Guardians 24-22	u8.5	-1.5+132	u8.5-111	-155

Saturday 10:10 p.m.

May 16, 2026

Progressive FieldCleveland

70°Fahrenheit

21%Rain

9Wind

E.De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases+135

CIN +145

Join Discord for earlier access: https://discord.gg/HjKxYKdSUy Cincinnati is 6-4 over its last 10 while Cleveland is 4-6 over the same stretch. The Reds have scored 50 runs in that window, enough offense to support a plus-money ML without confirmed starters. Cleveland has allowed 54 runs over its last 10, and this price is too wide for two teams separated by half a game.

Over 4.5 (F5)-120

Join Discord for earlier access: https://discord.gg/HjKxYKdSUy This is an early-run bet built around Chris Paddack's 7.63 ERA and 1.663 WHIP. Cleveland has averaged 5.2 runs over the last 10, and Cincinnati games have averaged 9.8 total runs in that same window. The number only asks for 5 runs before the bullpen phase, with both projected lineups carrying enough top-order pressure to get there.

S.Steer o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-105

1.05u

Under 8.5-110

0.55u

Bet to 8 (-105)

Under 8.5-104

1.04u

Over 8-115

1.15u

CLE -0.5 (F5)-102

1.32u

#EV 2.59%

CIN +150

0.5u

Bet to +133

Under 8.5-115

0.58u

Not including this in Saturday's breakdown because only FD has this price and I'd want 8.5. Negative run environment, neutral weather, G.Williams approaching 30 K%, both offenses below 95 wRC+ Hm/Rd/v RHP, CLE proj Def 13 FRV, 7th best bullpen estimators L30 days

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 11-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 10 of Guardians' 23 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	25-21	14-9	11-12	14-12	11-9
Reds	27-18	13-11	14-7	9-6	18-12

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	23-23	10-13	13-10	13-13	10-10
Reds	28-16-1	17-7	11-9-1	10-5	18-11-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	24-22	13-10	11-12	14-12	10-10
Reds	24-21	13-11	11-10	9-6	15-15

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 15th	CIN	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 8	CIN -141
May 13th	LAA	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 7	CLE -159
May 12th	LAA	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CLE -139
May 11th	LAA	W 7-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	CLE -173
May 10th	MIN	L 4-5	-1.5 L	O 7.5	MIN -162

Hunter Greene
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Greene is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER		W-L	ERA	WHIP	K/9
RC.Paddack, P		0-5	7.63	1.663	7.92

HITTERS	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR
1D.Myers, CF	.237	.366	.356	2
2E.De La Cruz, SS	.298	.360	.525	10
3S.Stewart, 1B	.238	.325	.459	10
4S.Steer, LF	.263	.335	.447	7
5J.Bleday, DH	.345	.465	.776	6
6B.Dunn, RF	.214	.353	.500	1
7T.Stephenson, C	.182	.276	.300	3
8M.McLain, 2B	.223	.330	.369	5
9K.Hayes, 3B	.153	.203	.243	2

PITCHER		W-L	ERA	WHIP	K/9
LJ.Cantillo, P		3-1	2.98	1.323	8.14

HITTERS	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR
1S.Kwan, LF	.201	.308	.258	1
2C.DeLauter, DH	.286	.371	.490	6
3J.Ramirez, 3B	.220	.347	.381	6
4K.Manzardo, 1B	.208	.294	.308	2
5T.Bazzana, 2B	.240	.406	.320	1
6D.Schneemann, CF	.272	.357	.447	4
7A.Martinez, RF	.259	.303	.467	7
8P.Bailey, C	.000	.125	.000	0
9B.Rocchio, SS	.269	.348	.366	3