Reds vs. Blue Jays Odds & Betting Predictions - August 21, 2024

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice First, let us consider the venue. Rogers Centre is generally known for being a hitter-friendly park with its retractable roof and turf surface. This year, however, fewer high-scoring games have been seen there. Specifically, in games where the total was about 8 runs, the Under has hit more frequently. The current conditions at Rogers Centre therefore may not be quite so conducive to offensive outbursts when these two specific offenses are considered. Right now, though, the Reds have been much less effective offensively on the road. Their team batting average falls to .230 on the road, and they have really struggled against right-handed pitching, with a .227 team batting average this year against righties. Without Jeimer Candelario, who has been probably the most consistent power threat, punch in general is missing from their lineup, particularly during those middle innings when they tend to stall offensively. On the other side, the Blue Jays have been up-and-down offensively, specifically versus right-handers. They have been especially cold after big offensive games, similar to the one in which they scored 10 runs in the previous game. Much of this inconsistency has contributed to Toronto's poor 21-24 record following a win, suggesting they won't carry momentum into this game. The recent form of the two starting pitchers further supports the Under. Nick Martinez, in his last couple of starts, has been outstanding overall, but mainly against walking—it nets out no walks to a batter in his last 24 innings. This might be a basis for limiting Toronto's scoring opportunities, especially since the Blue Jays rank just 27th in walks drawn. Martinez has also had success in keeping the Toronto lineup at bay, as the Jays are hitting just .241 against him in his three prior starts. Yariel Rodriguez, despite generally poor work this season, has pitched better at home, where his ERA is nearly a half run lower than on the road. In his last three starts, he's been showing some improvement lately in terms of limiting damage via the air—he's given up just one homer in his last 15.1 innings. With both starting pitchers trending positive and neither offense clicking with any kind of consistency, it would not seem likely to be an especially high-scoring game. The bullpen has also settled down for Toronto after being spotty in the middle part of the season. In their last 10 games, Blue Jays relievers have an ERA of 3.03, much more able to shut the door in late-game situations. On the other side, that Cincinnati bullpen—a clear strong point all year long—continues doing well with a road ERA of 3.58. Finally, a look must be taken at the umpire assignment. Mark Ripperger seems to slant toward pitchers to the tune of 9.60 runs on average in his games, going under in 16 of his 24 contests. His wide strike zone will help keep the pitchers ahead, limiting scoring opportunities even more.