Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 4, 2024

Red Sox at Twins

6:10 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

22-23

1 - 3

Minnesota Twins

23-20

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P.Lopez			4.08	15-10
B.Bernardino			4.06	4-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 22-23	+1.5	+1.5-145	o7.5-109	+150
Twins 23-20	u7.5	-1.5+122	u7.5-110	-180

Saturday 6:10 p.m.

May 04, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

Under 7+105

1.05u

P.Lopez u7.5 Ks-113

1.13u

Five lefties in the Red Sox lineup - Pablo’s worse split. Whiff rates down a tick to start the season as well. Red Sox lineup was cooking before yesterday - counting on a bounceback today. And even though they K at an above avg rate, they have kept the L22 opposing righties under 7.5.

Under 7.5-115

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games this season -- third lowest in MLB. The Twins have scored first in just 37% of their games this season -- fifth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Twins RPs have a strikeout rate of 29% this season -- second highest in MLB. Red Sox have struck out 26% this season -- fifth highest in MLB.

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The Red Sox are just 20-32 (.385) after a home loss since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

Rafael Devers is slugging .515 on breaking pitches since the 2022 season -- seventh best in MLB-- 94th Percentile. Jhoan Duran has thrown his curveball 31% of the time since the 2022 season -- 10th highest among qualified RPs-- 84th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .062 (1-for-16) against Pablo Lopez's elevated fastball this season -- tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .204 -- 98th Percentile.

Brennan Bernardino has allowed an OBP of just .241 (108 PA's) vs left-handed batters since last season -- 2nd best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .320 -- 98th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .163 (16-for-98) against Brennan Bernardino since last season -- tied for 5th best among AL Relievers; League Avg: .232 -- 95th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 11-12 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Twins' 21 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	26-18	15-6	11-12	15-12	11-6
Red Sox	22-23	9-11	13-12	15-16	7-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	16-25-3	7-13-1	9-12-2	10-15-2	6-10-1
Red Sox	22-22-1	8-11-1	14-11	14-16-1	8-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	24-20	15-6	9-14	15-12	9-8
Red Sox	22-23	11-9	11-14	17-14	5-8

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 4th	BOS	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	MIN -123
May 1st	@CWS	W 10-5	-1.5 W	O 9	MIN -225
Apr 30th	@CWS	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIN -180
Apr 29th	@CWS	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 7.5	MIN -164
Apr 28th	@LAA	W 11-5	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIN -110

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Romy Gonzalez
1B
Gonzalez is out with back
Out
Masataka Yoshida
LF
Yoshida is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Bernardino, P	12	1	1	0
RG.Weissert, P	29	2	3	0
LC.Booser, P	22	1.1	2	1
RJ.Slaten, P	29	1.2	1	1
RC.Anderson, P	35	2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	0-2	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, PH	0-0	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, RF	0-0	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	0-4	0	0
3T.O'Neill, LF	1-4	1	0
4W.Abreu, RF	2-4	0	1
4W.Abreu, CF	2-4	0	1
5C.Wong, C	1-4	0	0
6D.Smith, DH	2-4	0	0
7G.Cooper, 1B	0-3	0	0
8D.Hamilton, 2B	1-4	0	0
9C.Rafaela, SS	1-3	0	0
9R.McGuire, PH	0-1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	99	6	8	1
RJ.Alcala, P	21	0.2	0	0
LS.Okert, P	14	0.1	1	0
RJ.Duran, P	15	1	2	0
RC.Sands, P	9	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Jeffers, DH	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Miranda, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
2K.Farmer, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3W.Castro, LF	2-4	1	0	0
3W.Castro, CF	2-4	1	0	0
4C.Correa, SS	0-3	0	0	2
5M.Kepler, RF	2-4	1	1	1
6C.Santana, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7C.Vazquez, C	1-4	0	0	0
8A.Martin, CF	1-2	0	0	0
8A.Kirilloff, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8M.Margot, LF	0-0	0	0	0
9E.Julien, 2B	0-2	0	0	0