Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - August 28, 2025

Red Sox at Orioles

5:05 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

1-2

3 - 2

Baltimore Orioles

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Povich			5.21	3-8
G.Crochet			2.59	18-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 1-2	-1.5	-1.5-125	o8-114	-204
Orioles 0-0	u8	+1.5+104	u8-105	+170

Thursday 5:05 p.m.

August 28, 2025

Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore

BOS -1.5 (Live)-117

1.17u

BOS -188

0.53u

C.Povich o5.5 Ks-128

0.64u

Povich has been heating up with 6.8 strikeouts per game over his last 4 starts, and the underlying data backs the surge. The big shift has been in his pitch mix..he’s now leaning more on his changeup, which boasts a nasty 34% whiff rate. That pitch should be key today vs. a Red Sox lineup sending 8 righties to the plate. Povich uses his change as the primary putaway pitch vs. RHBs, and Boston ranks 5th in whiff rate against changeups this season. I have his most likely outcome at 6 Ks and project the fair price closer to -155.

G.Crochet o18.5 Outs-105

1.05u

BOS -1.5-107

BAL +1.5-105

2.86u

Under 8-115

0.75u

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MLB Public Betting

Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Orioles are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Orioles' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Orioles' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	78-84	37-44	41-40	25-41	51-42
Red Sox	87-75	43-38	44-37	53-50	34-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Orioles	65-92-5	34-44-3	31-48-2	31-32-3	32-59-2
Red Sox	76-82-4	33-45-3	43-37-1	50-50-3	26-30-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	75-87	39-42	36-45	32-34	40-53
Red Sox	89-73	48-33	41-40	61-42	28-29

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 27th	BOS	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 9	BOS +119
Aug 26th	BOS	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8.5	BOS +100
Aug 25th	BOS	L 3-4	+1.5 W	U 9	BOS -101
Aug 24th	HOU	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 9	BAL -134
Aug 23rd	HOU	L 8-9	+1.5 W	O 9	HOU -121

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Jovani Moran
RP
Moran is out with arm
Out

Grayson Rodriguez
SP
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LG.Crochet, P	98	6	7	2
RJ.Hicks, P	15	1	0	0
RG.Whitlock, P	20	1	1	0
LS.Matz, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Anthony, RF	2-3	1	0	0
2A.Bregman, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3T.Story, SS	1-4	1	1	1
4R.Gonzalez, 1B	1-4	0	0	1
5R.Refsnyder, DH	2-4	1	1	1
6N.Eaton, CF	0-4	0	0	0
7C.Narvaez, C	0-4	0	0	0
8C.Rafaela, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Garcia, LF	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Povich, P	81	5	5	2
RK.Strowd, P	19	2	2	0
RR.Garcia, P	23	1	1	1
RS.Dubin, P	9	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Holliday, 2B	2-5	0	0	0
2J.Jackson, RF	2-5	0	0	1
2J.Jackson, 3B	2-5	0	0	1
3G.Henderson, SS	0-3	0	0	0
4R.Mountcastle, DH	1-4	0	0	0
5E.Rivera, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
5D.Johnson, PR	0-0	0	0	0
5L.Vazquez, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
6C.Cowser, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7C.Mayo, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
7D.Beavers, PH	0-1	0	0	0
7D.Beavers, RF	0-1	0	0	0
8D.Carlson, LF	1-3	0	0	0
9A.Jackson, C	1-3	2	1	1