Rays vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - June 4, 2024

Rays at Marlins

10:40 pm • BSSUN

Tampa Bay Rays

9-13

9 - 5

Miami Marlins

10-12

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Luzardo			5.00	3-6
R.Pepiot			3.60	8-8

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Rays 9-13	-1.5+136	o7-122	-130
Marlins 10-12	+1.5-162	u7+102	+110

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

June 04, 2024

loanDepot parkMiami

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-135

1.35u

TB -127

Over 7-125

0.4u

J.Luzardo o5.5 Ks-128

R.Pepiot o16.5 Outs-120

Pepiot is over in 6/7 full starts this season. Got up to 88 pitches last start, so should be settled in with a full workload tonight. He’s got great stuff, which does lead to higher pitches per PA, but I’m ok with that tonight, because the Marlins swing at everything - 51% swing% is highest in baseball (including the highest chase rate). And despite being an extreme fly ball pitcher, LoanDepot Park is a pitcher friendly park, and the Marlins only have a .663 OPS vs fly ball pitchers.

R.Pepiot o16.5 Outs-110

0.91u

Featured Insight
Rays have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 40% of their games since the 2022 season -- fifth lowest in MLB. The Marlins have scored in at least three different innings in just 38% of their games since the 2022 season -- third lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Marlins have allowed just 1.8 runs per game on the road over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB (6 games). The Rays have scored just 2.9 runs per game at home over the last two weeks -- fifth lowest in MLB (9 games).

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The Marlins are 28-15 (.651) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

Bryan De La Cruz has an OPS of just .714 since the 2022 season -- 11th worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Jason Adam has allowed an OPS of just .549 (555 PAs) since the 2022 season -- eighth best among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Yandy Diaz has struck out in just 9% of PA's over the last two weeks -- 15th lowest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of just 12% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- fifth lowest among qualified SPs-- sixth Percentile.

Opponents are hitless in 17 AB's against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days -- best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .224 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitless in 17 AB's against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the second time in a game -- tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .213 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 4-4 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 10 of Marlins' 14 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	11-11	7-7	4-4	0-2	11-9
Rays	8-14	8-11	0-3	6-9	2-4

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	15-7	10-4	5-3	1-1	14-6
Rays	9-11-2	8-9-2	1-2	7-6-2	2-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	10-12	7-7	3-5	2-0	8-12
Rays	9-13	9-10	0-3	8-7	1-5

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 2nd	TEX	L 0-6	+1.5 L	U 8.5	TEX +105
Jun 1st	TEX	L 0-7	+1.5 L	U 8	TEX -118
May 31st	TEX	W 8-2	+1.5 W	O 8.5	MIA +116
May 29th	@SD	W 9-1	+1.5 W	O 7	MIA +154
May 29th	@SD	L 0-4	+1.5 L	U 7	SD +114

Josh Lowe
OF
Lowe is out with oblique
Out
Alex Faedo
P
Faedo is out with shoulder
Out
Shane McClanahan
P
McClanahan is out with triceps
Out
Richie Palacios
IF
Palacios is out with knee
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out
Jonny DeLuca
OF
DeLuca is out with shoulder
Out

Braxton Garrett
P
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Ryan Weathers
P
Weathers is out with arm
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Pepiot, P	89	6	8	3
RJ.Sterner, P	36	2	2	1
RP.Maton, P	9	0	0	0
RP.Fairbanks, P	17	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y.Diaz, 1B	2-5	1	0	0
2R.Arozarena, LF	1-1	1	0	0
3H.Ramirez, DH	1-5	2	0	0
4I.Paredes, 3B	2-5	2	0	2
5B.Lowe, 2B	2-4	2	1	5
6A.Rosario, SS	3-4	1	0	1
7J.Siri, CF	1-5	0	0	1
8J.DeLuca, RF	0-5	0	0	0
9A.Jackson, C	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Luzardo, P	83	4.1	2	9
RD.Cronin, P	8	0.2	0	0
RH.Brazoban, P	44	2	3	0
RE.Ramirez, P	25	1	2	0
LT.Scott, P	23	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chisholm, CF	1-5	0	0	0
2B.De La Cruz, DH	1-5	1	1	2
3J.Burger, 3B	2-5	1	0	0
4J.Bell, 1B	2-5	2	0	1
5J.Sanchez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
6O.Lopez, 2B	1-3	0	0	2
7N.Gordon, LF	1-3	1	0	0
8T.Anderson, SS	1-4	0	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	1-3	0	0	0
9V.Brujan, PH	1-1	0	0	0