MLB Player Props: Strikeout Leader Projections
Top Value
Luis Gil and Tyler Glasnow should be heavy favorites today, but I’m in line with them around 4/1.
Shota Imanaga has one of the highest K props of the slate (6.5) against the White Sox, but is priced at 10/1. He’s worth a play at that price considering I have his fair odds closer to 8/1.
Pick: Shota Imanaga (Cubs) 10-1 vs. White Sox
Smaller plays
Both of these pitchers have the upside to take down this market and are offering some slight value at these prices.
Picks
- Jesus Luzardo 19-1 vs. Rays (projecting closer to 15/1)
- Jared Jones 32-1 vs. Dodgers (projecting closer to 24/1)
MLB Player Props: Max Fried
Max Fried
Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Fried has been great this season, but his K% has taken a bit of hit and has been just a tad below 21% so far.
Underlying metrics support the dip in K rate. Fried is getting fewer hitters to whiff, which seems to be by design, as he’s throwing his sinker 5% more this season.
The Red Sox are a team that strikes out a lot, which is why his prop should be a bit higher. However, Fried's top strikeout pitch is his curveball, and the Red Sox have been much better at avoiding Ks against that pitch. They're right around league average in K% against curveballs.
Fried's most likely outcome is exactly six strikeouts, so this will probably be a sweat. I’m showing his fair odds closer to -165 he stays under 6.5, though.
