Pirates vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - September 24, 2025

It doesn’t get much simpler than this when two of my favorite pitchers are facing off. Let’s start with Paul Skenes, who needs no introduction. He’s elite and well on his way to winning the NL Cy Young. Skenes owns a 2.03 ERA and has been far and away the most dominant pitcher since his 2024 debut. He ranks in the 99th percentile in run value and carries one of the best expected batting averages in the league. Meanwhile, the Reds offense has been lifeless all season. Over the past month, they rank just 26th in batting average along with a 88 wRC+. This is not a good lineup, and with the pressure of a playoff push, nerves at the plate will only add to their struggles. Cincinnati has scored just three runs across its last two games. When Skenes faced them in August, he allowed no runs and struck out eight across six innings. On the other side, since returning from injury, Hunter Greene has been outstanding. He’s fresh off a complete game shutout against the Cubs, allowing just one hit over nine innings. That was his second start in three outings where he gave up only a single hit. Greene is striking out batters at a 31.5% clip with a 32.1% chase rate, and his fastball remains one of the best in baseball. Now, he draws the worst road offense in the league (Rockies don’t count). The Pirates are hitting just .215 with a brutal 74 wRC+ away from PNC Park. These are also two very good defensive teams, so hopefully we don’t screwed by errors like last night’s under. I’m also going to avoid the bullpens and stick with the F5 under. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is 0-0 or 1-0 after five innings. I’m taking this at U3.5 (-135) on Draft Kings, but would take it down to 3 as well.

Hunter Greene is coming off a complete game shutout against the Cubs. He allowed just 3 baserunners. Greene has now allowed 2 ERs in 4 home starts since returning from the IL. He draws a Pittsburgh offense that ranks dead last in OPS and wOBA vs. RHP in September. On the other side, it’s Paul Skenes. What else is there to say? He can put the finishing touches on his Cy Young campaign tonight. Cincinnati is in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, but not because of their bats. The Reds are 23rd in wRC+ vs. righties this month.