Phillies vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - August 3, 2023

Phillies at Marlins

4:10 pm • MLB Network

Philadelphia Phillies

27-18

4 - 2

Miami Marlins

17-27

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Cueto			6.02	1-4
M.Lorenzen			3.58	5-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 27-18	-1.5+138	o8.5-110	-125
Marlins 17-27	+1.5-168	u8.5-110	+105

Thursday 4:10 p.m.

August 03, 2023

loanDepot parkMiami

PHI -125

M.Lorenzen u4.5 Ks-120

0.5u

@PropBetGuy

M.Lorenzen u4.5 Ks-110

1.1u

Lorenzen is under this line in 10/18, but has only faced 5 teams with a K% vs righties that’s below average, and he’s under in all 5 (14 Ks in 31.2 IP). MIA fits the bill - 7th lowest K% vs righties this season (21.5%), and even better at home (20.2% for the season and 17.3% over the L400 PAs). Limited, but some history for Lorenzen vs most of the Marlins projected starters; I see only three plus matchups for him - Jazz, Soler and Garcia. MIA has kept 7/L11 righty starters under this line in MIA.

Over 8.5-110

MIA +106 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +105

MIA +115

0.5u

Bet to +100

Featured Insight
The Marlins are batting just .240 with RISP since last season -- fourth-worst in MLB. Opponents are hitting just .235 (239-for-1,019) against PhilliesRPs with RISP since last season -- eighth-best in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Phillies have struck out 24% over the last two weeks -- seventh-highest in MLB. Marlins have a strikeout rate of 25% over the last two weeks -- tied for second-highest in MLB.

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The Phillies are 9-104 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season -- 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.

Jake Burger has struck out in 31% of PA's this season -- eighth highest in MLB-- fifth Percentile. Aroldis Chapman has a strikeout rate of 45% this season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Jacob Stallings has an OPS of just .557 this season -- 13th worst among hitters with at least 159 total PA's-- third Percentile. Will Smith has allowed an OPS of just .480 (146 PAs) this season -- fourth best among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Michael Lorenzen has a strikeout rate of just 9% (4 SO in 47 PAs) in late innings since last season -- 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- third Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 10-10 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 14 of Marlins' 24 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	22-22	12-12	10-10	2-4	19-18
Phillies	23-22	12-12	11-10	18-19	5-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	27-17	14-10	13-7	3-3	24-13
Phillies	20-24-1	13-11	7-13-1	17-19-1	3-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	17-27	11-13	6-14	4-2	13-24
Phillies	27-18	16-8	11-10	23-14	4-4

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 2nd	PHI	W 9-8	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIA -101
Aug 1st	PHI	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	PHI -137
Jul 31st	PHI	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 8.5	PHI -116
Jul 30th	DET	W 8-6	-1.5 W	O 7	MIA -159
Jul 29th	DET	L 0-5	-1.5 L	U 8.5	DET -158

Braxton Garrett
P
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Lorenzen, P		101	8	5	2
RS.Dominguez, P		13	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Bohm, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	2-4	0	0	0
4N.Castellanos, RF	1-3	2	0	0
5B.Stott, 2B	0-3	1	0	0
6J.Realmuto, C	2-4	1	1	2
7B.Marsh, CF	1-3	0	0	2
7B.Marsh, LF	1-3	0	0	2
8T.Turner, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Cave, LF	0-2	0	0	0
9R.Castro, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9J.Rojas, CF	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Cueto, P	100	6	4	4
LA.Puk, P	20	1	1	0
LD. Smeltzer, P	24	2	5	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Soler, DH	1-4	0	0	0
3J.Bell, 1B	0-3	1	0	0
4J.Chisholm, CF	2-4	0	0	1
5J.Burger, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6B.De La Cruz, LF	2-4	1	1	1
7J.Sanchez, RF	1-4	0	0	0
8J.Wendle, SS	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Stallings, C	0-2	0	0	0
9J.Berti, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	0-0	0	0	0