Padres vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - August 31, 2024

Padres at Rays

8:10 pm • SDPA

San Diego Padres

4-3

4 - 11

Tampa Bay Rays

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Baz			3.06	4-3
R.Vasquez			4.87	4-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 4-3	+1.5-205	o8-110	+102
Rays 0-0	-1.5+170	u8-110	-121

Saturday 8:10 p.m.

August 31, 2024

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

M.Machado o1.5 Total Bases+106

J.Lowe o1.5 Total Bases+120

1.2u

S.Baz o4.5 Hits Allowed-137

Caesars

TB -120

2.5u

S.Baz o1.5 BB-121

Baz is over in 13/18 starts between AAA and MLB. Will see 5+ lefties (BB% spikes to 12.8%). Padres right on league avg with their walk rate vs righties over the L30 days - and 9/L14 are over. 9th lowest chase rate over the L30 days as well.

Featured Insight
Padres RPs have a strikeout rate of 30% this month -- highest in MLB. Rays have struck out 28% this month -- tied for second highest in MLB.

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The Rays are 56-1 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .946.

The Padres are 44-31 (.587) after a win this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.

The Padres are 39-28 (.582) on the road this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Rays are 39-28 (.582) after a loss this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .506.

Christopher Morel has struck out in 28% of PA's since last season -- 10th highest in MLB-- eighth Percentile. Tanner Scott has a strikeout rate of 31% since last season -- 14th highest among qualified RPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Taylor Walls has an OPS of just .574 since the 2022 season -- third worst among hitters with at least 687 total PA's-- 0 Percentile. Robert Suarez has allowed an OPS of just .549 (506 PAs) since the 2022 season -- 10th best among qualified RPs-- 94th Percentile.

Shane Baz has not allowed a hit to any of the last 35 batters he's faced after reaching two strikes. -- Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 52.

Randy Vasquez has an average spin rate of 3105.6 RPM on curveballs since last season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 2531.1 -- 98th Percentile.

Shane Baz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 9.1 innings pitched -- the longest active streak is 15.1.

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MLB Public Betting

Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Rays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 30th	SD	L 5-13	-1.5 L	O 7.5	SD -125
Aug 28th	@SEA	L 2-6	+1.5 L	O 6.5	SEA +132
Aug 28th	@SEA	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 6.5	TB +142
Aug 27th	@SEA	L 1-5	+1.5 L	U 7	SEA +110
Aug 25th	@LAD	L 1-3	+1.5 L	U 9	LAD +195

Shane McClanahan
P
McClanahan is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Vasquez, P		93	4.1	3	9
RA.Jacob, P		48	3.2	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Arraez, DH	2-3	1	0	1
2J.Profar, LF	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Cronenworth, 1B	3-5	1	1	2
4M.Machado, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
5X.Bogaerts, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Merrill, CF	0-4	0	0	0
7D.Peralta, RF	0-4	0	0	0
8L.Campusano, C	1-4	1	0	0
9M.McCoy, SS	2-3	1	0	1
9D.Solano, PH	1-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Baz, P	78	5	5	2
RD.Rasmussen, P	38	2	0	2
RK.Kelly, P	15	1	0	0
RH.Bigge, P	19	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Morel, 2B	2-4	2	0	1
2B.Lowe, 1B	3-5	3	0	1
3J.Caminero, 3B	1-4	2	1	3
4J.Lowe, LF	2-4	2	0	1
5J.Caballero, SS	2-5	0	0	4
6B.Rortvedt, C	1-4	0	0	1
7J.DeLuca, RF	1-3	0	0	0
8J.Aranda, DH	1-4	1	0	0
9J.Siri, CF	0-4	1	0	0