Padres vs Rays Prediction & Moneyline Pick for Saturday

Padres vs Rays Prediction & Moneyline Pick for Saturday article feature image
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Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres argues with home plate umpire Adam Beck. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images)

Saturday's Padres vs Raysprediction shows clear moneyline value in one of Saturday's most entertaining matchups.

We have an MLB moneyline model with a 61% win-rate. It only picks AL vs. NL games — just like Padres vs. Rays.

That's exactly why there's value. If we regress the win rate to, say, a 60% implied probability, that equates to a moneyline price around -150.

Saturday's Padres vs. Rays odds list San Diego at -102 and Tampa Bay at -120. More or less, one of those moneyline sides is being undervalued.

There's a strategic way to go about this. After laying the framework, let's transition to the side that has usually been the right MLB prediction.


Padres vs Rays Prediction & Moneyline Pick for Saturday

The Padres are red-hot behind NL Rookie of the Year favorite Jackson Merrill. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is just fighting to get above .500.

Due to both teams' records and situation, our