Padres vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - July 15, 2023

Padres at Phillies

5:05 pm • MLB Network

San Diego Padres

4-3

4 - 6

Philadelphia Phillies

1-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Suarez			4.18	4-6
B.Snell			2.25	14-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 4-3	-1.5+105	o9-105	-167
Phillies 1-3	+1.5-125	u9-115	+139

Saturday 5:05 p.m.

July 15, 2023

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

Under 9+100

SD -160

1.6u

R.Suarez u17.5 Outs-125

1.25u

SDP a brutal matchup for lefties - 14/L17 lefties under this line, SDP 3rd in pitches per PA (and their RHH platoon has 7 guys in the lineup who see more pitches than average), and as a team they have a 106 wRC+ over the last month vs lefties. Suarez’ strike % of 61.7% (would rank 96th of 108 if he qualified) will be a major issue against a team that doesn’t chase (3rd lowest chase rate).

SD -130 (F5)

SD -122 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -130

SD -120

FanDuel 5:15 Friday.

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Saturday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
Jul 15, 2023 UTC

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The Phillies are 39-1 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .948.

Kyle Schwarber is batting just .183 with RISP this season -- ninth worst in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .162 (13-for-80) against Blake Snell with RISP this season -- best among qualified SPs-- 100th Percentile.

Bryson Stott has an OPS of just .681 with RISP since last season -- 11th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Blake Snell has allowed an OPS of just .577 (221 PAs) with RISP since last season -- 11th best among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (12/108) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% -- first Percentile.

Blake Snell has allowed three-ball counts to 32% of batters they faced (132/408 PA's) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% -- first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .091 (11-for-121) against Blake Snell's curve and slider this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 14th	SD	L 3-8	+1.5 L	O 9.5	SD -106
Jul 9th	@MIA	L 3-7	+1.5 L	O 7	MIA +100
Jul 8th	@MIA	L 3-5	-1.5 L	O 7.5	MIA -105
Jul 7th	@MIA	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 7	PHI -143
Jul 6th	@TB	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 9.5	PHI +111

Mason McCoy
IF
McCoy is out with back
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Snell, P	82	5	7	0
RS.Wilson, P	21	1	1	2
RN.Martinez, P	16	1	1	1
LT.Hill, P	24	0.1	1	2
RB.Honeywell, P	5	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1H.Kim, 2B	3-5	0	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	1-4	0	0	0
3J.Soto, LF	0-3	0	0	0
4M.Machado, DH	1-5	1	1	1
5X.Bogaerts, SS	2-4	0	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7G.Sanchez, C	0-3	1	0	0
8M.Batten, 3B	1-1	1	0	0
8R. Odor, PH	0-2	0	0	0
8R. Odor, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
9T.Grisham, CF	1-3	1	1	3

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LR.Suarez, P	97	6	3	3
RY.Marte, P	16	0.2	0	0
LM.Strahm, P	30	1.1	3	1
RC.Kimbrel, P	19	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	2-5	1	1	2
2T.Turner, SS	2-4	0	0	1
3N.Castellanos, RF	0-5	0	0	0
4A.Bohm, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
5J.Realmuto, C	0-4	0	0	0
6D. Ellis, 1B	1-2	0	0	0
6B.Stott, PH	0-1	2	0	0
6B.Stott, 2B	0-1	2	0	0
7E.Sosa, 2B	1-2	0	0	0
7D.Hall, PH	0-2	0	0	0
7D.Hall, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
8B.Marsh, LF	2-3	1	0	2
8B.Marsh, CF	2-3	1	0	2
9J.Rojas, CF	0-3	0	0	0
9B.Harper, PH	1-1	1	0	1
9G.Stubbs, LF	0-0	0	0	0